COMMODITIES

Przemyslaw Radomski of SunshineProfits.com revisits the great gold bull market of 1977-80 for clues into whether or not we are currently looking at the last stages of the current gold bull market.

This essay is inspired by a question we received from one of our subscribers. On December 2012, we published an essay on gold and the dollar collapse in which we pointed out why you might profit from gold even if the US dollar doesn’t deteriorate completely. Today, we will elaborate on why we actually use the 1980 top in comparisons.

The fact that nobody really knows with absolute certainty where gold will really go from today onward makes people try to make their own guesses about what can happen with the yellow metal. One of the methods to do that is to look back into past situations and try to estimate if what is happening now is somehow similar to those past events.

In fact, history doesn’t repeat itself precisely. What happened once doesn’t come back in exactly the same way. Because of that the future is not something that is completely predictable and those who aim to predict it (for instance analysts and investment tools). But what happens now can be similar to what has happened before. J.R. Colombo wrote “‘History never repeats itself but it rhymes,’ said Mark Twain”. It may be possible that some patterns repeat themselves. The same goes for everything that’s happening with gold. And even if past patterns don’t give you any certainty, sometimes they can limit the uncertainty.

The situation in the gold market today is different than that one in 1980 in a few important areas. Let us analyze that in more detail. The chart below presents US inflation figures.

chart
Click to Enlarge

The red line represents official inflation data as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The gold line represents the inflation data calculated according to the methodology used in 1980. There is visible divergence between the two lines after 1980, and particularly after 1985.

Let’s focus on the 1977-80 period. The annual inflation rate went up from 5.2% in January 1977 to 14.8% in March 1980. This rise was partially due to the deteriorating political situation in Iran, one of the OPEC nations. In early 1979, Iran saw a revolution, which resulted in political power being shifted from the Shah of Iran to a religious leader, Ruhollah Khomeini. In the wake of the revolution, oil exports fell, curtailing global supply and driving prices of oil higher which, in turn, fueled the rise in prices of many other goods.

This is, however, only part of the story. OPEC countries increased oil supply to compensate for shortages but the oil crisis was exacerbated by an embargo on Iranian oil imposed by US President Jimmy Carter following an incident in the US Embassy in Teheran, where more than 60 US citizens had been taken hostages. With the embargo in place and public panic about the availability of oil, buyers rushed to acquire oil while they could. Increased demand caused even further increases in prices, and so the cycle continued. This is quite important as it shows that the effects of adverse events can be worsened by crowd behavior.

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