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Friday, November 13, 2009
Has Apple Blown Its Big Chance?
(Page 1 of 2)

While competitors have been losing market share, the company has failed to capitalize on an opportunity to achieve utter dominance, leaving the door open for its rivals.

I know the stock is an investor darling, trading near its all-time high.

And I know the company's products have tremendous consumer cachet—so much so that the company is able to sell its iPhones and iMacs for prices well above those charged by competitors.

But it still looks to me that Apple has missed its chance. It had a limited window of opportunity when competitors such as Microsoft couldn't do anything right, and it didn't turn that opening into a significant share of the personal computer market. It was first to market with a game-changing smart phone, but the company has pursued a high-end niche strategy with the iPhone that has left the door wide open for Google to grab for the mass market.

If this is as good as it gets for Apple, the company has no one to blame but itself. The opportunity was there, and Apple didn't exploit it as ruthlessly or as relentlessly as it needed to.

How Competitors Stumbled

Here's where the company could've seized a greater advantage:

A major competitor, Microsoft, produced a stink bomb of an operating system. Windows Vista was so terrible that 80% of the companies running Microsoft's aging predecessor operating system, Windows XP, chose not to upgrade. And while Microsoft was busy issuing embarrassing security patch after security patch, before and after Vista's release, Apple was rolling out elegant version after version of its operating system.
 
Meanwhile, major PC makers lost their way. Dell, for example, has bled market share recently. According to market analysts Gartner and IDC, Dell's share of the personal computer market has dropped almost 19% in the past year.

And what happened to Apple's market share for personal computers while Microsoft was busy shooting itself in bothfeet and every other appendage it could aim a marketing message at? And while PC makers couldn't come up with anything more revolutionary than the idea that computers could come in colors instead of just Dell gray?

Well, Apple did reverse a decline that had its personal computers headed from niche product to museum curiosity. Yes, Apple has always held that market share didn't matter as much as profitability, but that attitude seemed increasingly like a defensive self-justification as its market share bottomed near 3%.

Apple's revival has been remarkable. Today, depending on which market research company you believe, Apple has somewhere between 7.6% and 8.7% of the market for personal computers. The company is either number four behind Acer or number five behind Toshiba.

Number four or number five? That's all that you get from the competitive opportunity of several lifetimes?
 
Counteroffensive Is Just Getting Started

Shouldn't Apple have been more aggressive about changing the game while its opponents were curled up in the fetal position? Wasn't the goal, after all, global domination and not just ego-gratifying revival meetings of the faithful?

You think I'm kidding? You say Apple didn't need to wipe the floor with the competition? You say that Apple CEO Steve Jobs didn't need to turn Microsoft into a Harvard Business School case study in how a company could squander market dominance?

I think you're dead wrong. Because the counteroffensive is just beginning, and it's going to be fierce.

First, Windows 7 will remove some of the marketing stigma from the PC.

Microsoft and the rest of the PC industry don't have to persuade core Mac enthusiasts to give up their beautiful machines with their great operating systems. (Hey, I work on both PCs and Macs, and I know—I feel—the difference.) Those folks won't give up their Macs until Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer pries them from their cold, dead fingers.


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Comment on this article: Has Apple Blown Its Big Chance?
Friday, November 13, 2009 at 2:30:05 PM    by Anonymous
Jim, would you agree that the reason the pc companies have had such trouble is because they rush things out without much research or thought, and basically no quality-- hence their cheap price. And, Apple spends all the time it needs to get their products ready to go mostly trouble free-- hence the higher price. Hell, it's a hands-down better product no matter what pc commercials say. People are either going to go for cheap or for quality.
Friday, November 13, 2009 at 3:20:14 PM    by Anonymous
Well, Mr Jubak just doesn't get it at all. Apple is striding into the future, but he wants them to turn back and confront the "competition" to pick up yesterdays business. That's exactly how they will eventually lose their leadership, but it won't be any time soon. Right now, they don't even have any effective competition.
Friday, November 13, 2009 at 10:32:16 PM    by Anonymous
So, Mr. Jubak, may I assume that you also think that BMW "has blown its big chance" by not taking over the market served by General Motors and Chrysler? Or that Le Bernardin "has blown its big chance"by not taking over the market served by Wendy's? (ROTFL) What exactly does market domination have to do with financial success and stellar stock performance?
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So, Mr. Jubak, may I assume that you also think that BMW "has blown its big chance" by not taking... Anonymous

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