The dollar index closed last week a bit higher, and there is lots of debate about this chart. The dollar bears paint it as a head-and-shoulders top with the neckline at line a.
The longer term picture to me is not that bearish, as the OBV shows a bullish zig-zag formation. A move above the OBV resistance (line b) would be positive. When the dollar moves up, gold often moves down so stay tuned.
The weekly chart of crude oil shows that prices have been trying to stabilize in the $84 to $86.50 area, but it did close the week lower.
The OBV is acting stronger than prices, but still many are looking for sharply lower crude oil prices. If so, the OBV is likely to break below support (line e) ahead of prices. Crude oil prices are likely to close the year lower for the first time in three years.
Both the Spyder Gold Trust (GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) closed the week a bit lower, but well above the worst levels. The daily charts suggest two possible scenarios for the metals, as I discussed last week in Two Paths for Precious Metals.
I recommended closing out part of the long positions last week, and they were sold a bit lower than where we closed the week.
The Week Ahead
Even though stocks were not that strong last week, the market was quite resilient, as the dips have been brief. The S&P futures tested support at 1,396 early Wednesday, but then rallied to close higher and settled the week at 1,416.50.
There were not many good risk entries last week, so it was more difficult to be a smart buyer by buying at more important support. I believe there will be some opportunities in the next week or so.
Some of the strong country ETFs are likely to correct back to support, which should provide another opportunity to buy. I also will be looking at the industrial sector, as the weekly relative performance looks very strong.
An alternative to individual stocks might be the equity income funds that I discussed last week, as they are still well below their September highs. Since stocks did move higher this week, be sure to check your own positions to see if your stops need to be modified. I raised some of the stops in the Charts in Play Portfolio last Friday.