Gurus' Views & Strategies

The Week Ahead: Currency Wars and Commodities
Specialty: STRATEGIES
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Published: 2/15/2013
By Tom Aspray, Senior Editor, MoneyShow.com
Tickers mentioned: GLD, IWM, QQQ, DIA, SPY
(Page 4 of 4)

Sector Focus
The iShares Dow Jones Transportation (IYT) was up just over 0.5% last week, as it continues to lead the Dow Industrials higher. The weekly chart shows a narrow range, and volume declined late in the week. There is first good support now at $100.60 to $102, as IYT is well above the quarterly pivot at $93.21.

The sector ETFs were mostly up or down slightly last week. Just before the close, four were up, four were down, and one was unchanged. The Select Sector SPDR Industrials (XLI) and the Select Sector SPDR Financials (XLF) did the best, up 0.9% and 0.8% respectively.

On the downside, the Select Sector SPDR Energy (XLE) and the Select Sector SPDR Technology (XLK) both lost 0.6%. XLE and XOP were both discussed in more detail in last Friday's column, as was crude oil.

I have recommended taking some partial profits in my favorite sectors in the past few weeks, and I will be watching them closely in the week ahead.

Interest Rates
The yield on the ten-year T-Note closed the week back above the 2% level, and the uptrend from last summer's lows is still intact. There is initial support now in the 1.80% to 1.83% area.

chart
Click to Enlarge

Precious Metals
The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) gapped to the downside Friday and hit a low of $154.56 before rebounding to close at $155.81. The weekly chart shows that the next major support from 2011 is in the $148.20 area (line a). If this is broken, the major 38% support is now at $140.

The weekly OBV closed above its WMA last week, but reversed this week and is now below it. There is important OBV support at the early January lows (line b). The sentiment and technical picture look as though a bottom was in place, and aggressive investors who went long at $161.34 were stopped out at $156.42 for a 3% loss.

The Week Ahead
In last week's column, I thought the technology sector might come back to life and provide the fuel for prices to accelerate again to the upside. This is still possible, but it sure did not happen last week.

I continue to recommend taking some profits on long positions. I added some more sell recommendations in my review of the Charts in Play portfolio last week, and may have even more this week.

I am still finding a few stocks that appear to have already completed their correction and are close to good support. If you have had some good winners this year, you should take a look at these new picks...but if you have not been in stocks so far this year, I would not join the party now. I continue to think that there will be a better opportunity later in the year.

  • Don't forget to read Tom's latest Trading Lesson, The Best Volume Indicator.
  • Editor's Note: If you'd like to learn more about technical analysis, attend Tom Aspray's workshop at the Traders Expo in New York, February 17-19. You can sign up here. It's free!

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 • August 15 – 17, 2013
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