Global Editor's Note

China, Europe Export Gloom
Specialty: GLOBAL
Keyword Image
Published: 3/22/2012
By Igor Greenwald, Financial Columnist, The Energy Strategist
Tickers mentioned: TTM, F

European markets took a hit after overnight surveys from European and Chinese manufacturers implied contraction, and China’s weakness has now infected key trading partners, writes MoneyShow.com senior editor Igor Greenwald.

Another day, another early-morning cold shower, courtesy of our foreign friends.

Market enthusiasm over recent signs of improved hiring and stronger housing demand in the US is being tested, once again, by bad news from Europe and China.

The Chinese purchasing managers index compiled by HSBC wilted to 48.1 from 49.6 last month. And though the Chinese bank cut the reserve requirements for hundreds of branches of Agricultural Bank of China in a bid to spur lending, there was widespread concern that such moves won’t alter the economy’s worrying trajectory.

A leadership transition in Beijing featuring the fall from grace of a populist party boss and even far-fetched rumors of a coup may be adding to the impression that China’s rulers are a bit distracted at the moment.

The Shanghai Composite is down 2% from its recent peak, 6% since mid-November, and 22% since April. Its weakness has begun to spread to China’s key trading partners: markets in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Australia, and Canada have been clear laggards this month on the global scene, according to MSCI Barra. Meanwhile, Brazilian ADRs, dominated by the big resource exporters, have significantly underperformed Brazil equities on the whole.

European stocks have fared better this year, but that resilience is being tested by today’s disappointing data and heavy selling. Stocks across Europe were down 1.6% midmorning after European manufacturers proved no sunnier than Chinese competitors.

Notably, Germany’s PMI came in at 48.1, way below forecasts of 51 (with 50 separating expansion from contraction). France registered 47.6, down from 50 the prior month.
Rates on Italian and Spanish bonds rose, with Spanish ten-year yields up 60 basis points since March 1. Spain’s attempt to flout its austerity target amid shrinking revenues has investors fretting a severe recession as the property bubble continues to deflate.

The newly released UK “austerity” budget aims for a deficit equal to 7.6% of GDP next year, which must sound generous to Spaniards who’re being told in Brussels that their 5.8% goal is unaffordable. The UK has surprisingly little to show for its two years of budget cutting, in terms of either greater fiscal rectitude or economic growth.

February saw even chillier retail sales as consumers worried about disappearing jobs.

Maybe this is just a routine correction, or maybe Europe is finally succumbing to its failed austerity campaign. Either way, the smart money seems to be betting on a rebound in Asia first.

Jaguar Land Rover, owned by India’s Tata Motors (TTM), has just signed a deal with Chinese auto maker Chery for a Chinese manufacturing joint venture said to be worth nearly $3 billion.

Chinese auto sales are down 6% so far this year. But Tata, which bought Jaguar Land Rover from Ford (F) for a song in 2008, obviously sees better days ahead.

TRADESHOW LOCATIONS

Show Logo
San Francisco
 • August 15 – 17, 2013
Free eLetters

Receive all-new market analysis and commentary, timely recommendations, exclusive videos, and much more from hundreds of top experts. Subscribe today!

INVESTING ELETTERS

   More Details

Daily Investing Alert

Weekly Investing eLetter

Hot Off The Tape Weekly Video eLetter

TRADING ELETTERS

   More Details

Daily Trading Alert

Trading Lessons

Trader Talk Podcast

Most Popular

Keyword Image The Week Ahead: Will 2013 Be Another Double-Digit Year?
A test of all-time stock highs looks highly likely next year, but the market's reaction to fiscal...
15 Most Overbought S&P 500 Stocks
Large-Cap Winners & Losers
Investors Bearish...Time to Buy!
Sponsored Links

Atlas Energy, L.P.

Atlas Energy, L.P. (NYSE: ATLS) is a master limited partnership which owns all of the general…

Vale S.A.

Vale is the second largest metals and mining company in the world, one of the 30 largest publicly…

Royal Dutch Shell, plc

The Shell Group, (The Group), is a diverse group of energy companies with around 90,000 employees…

CEMIG

Cemig (NYSE:CIG) is one of Brazil's largest and most profitable electricity concession holders.…