| VIDEOS from Stephen Biggar |
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Standard & Poor’s begins with about 1,500 equities, and
isolates some 125 as its 5-star best buys. From these, it selects a "Top 10
Portfolio," featuring those stocks offering the best total return potential.
Here, Stephen Biggar describes the
"finalists."
"We do very rigorous analysis on the
companies and industries we cover, both qualitative and quantitative. We look at
stocks in three fundamental ways. Our first is intrinsic value analysis, which
is generally referred to as discounted cash flow. In our view, cash is king.
Second is relative valuation. These metrics are generally those that are most
appropriate for that specific industry based on what typically drives a
particular company to excel within its peer group. Lastly, we look at the sum of
the parts. This generally works well when you have a company that is not readily
comparable to many peers. Our overall investment theme is growth at a reasonable
price; we like stocks where the p/e multiple is less than the growth rate.
"We cover about 1,500 companies and only
8% to 10% at any given time are in the strong buy category. These 5-star stocks
have consistently outperformed the S&P 500 for over 18 years, with an
average annual return of 16% vs. 8.9% per year for the overall index. Our Top 10
portfolio was launched back in Dec. 31 2001. Since inception it has increased
15.2% while the S&P 500 index during the same time period gained less than
1%. This portfolio represents the stocks that we believe have the best total
return potential.
"The first stock is Burlington
Northern (BNI NYSE) a large-cap company, operating the second largest US
rail system, mostly in the Midwest and West. They deliver about 45% of the rail
traffic out there. They ship a lot of coal, which has seen strong demand. We see
economic growth driving increased manufacturing output still, although at
somewhat reduced rates. And higher retail sales clearly help this group. Its
quality rank is A- and we expect double-digit growth in revenues for the year
ahead. It has a very strong balance, which should help it ride out any economic
storms.
"Cooper Cos. (COO NYSE) is a small-cap company that
produces specialty healthcare products. It is the lesser-known rival of Bausch &
Lomb, and is involved in the contact lens market. Its quality rank is B, with a
very strong track record of growth, which we do see continuing based on new
product flow and acquisitions. The company generates substantial free cash flow
growth and has a very strong balance sheet with little to no debt.
"Covance (CVD NYSE) is a mid-cap company, which is
a leading research contract organization. They do a wide range of development
services in the biotech, biopharmaceutical, and medical device industries. It
is very rapidly growing sub-industry of the healthcare group. The company doesn’t
have a quality ranking, as that requires ten years of history. Thus far, however, it
does have a strong track record, is a strong cash flow generator, with a strong
balance sheet with little to no debt.
"FMC Corp. (FMC NYSE) is a mid-cap stock. It is a
diversified product of industrial and agricultural specialty and chemicals. It is very
well diversified with global operations. Selling prices and profit margins
should benefit from strong global demand. Wee see double-digit earnings growth
continuing. This is a B- ranked stock. It shows high and rising free cash flow
and very stable finances.
"Guitar Center (GTRC NASDAQ) is a small cap. The firm is the
leading US retailer of guitars, amplifiers, and other musical instruments. When we
look in our small-cap and emerging growth sectors, we try to find companies that have
a niche in segments or industries in which consolidation can take place.
This company operates in the very fragmented music-store industry, where the top ten
players in this space only have about 24% of the market, so there is plenty of
opportunity for the company to expand and find new opportunities. We see double
digit sales and earnings continuing. It also has less than a ten-year history for
a quality rank, but it does have rising free cash flow and very strong margins
and a stable debt picture.
"Ingersoll Rand (IR NYSE) is a large-cap company that makes a wide range
of construction, commercial, and industrial equipment. They are emphasizing new
products, with strong growth in the security and safety business for example,
which is benefiting from the post 9/-11 environment. The firm shows solid income
and revenue growth. It is an A quality ranked stock, with rising return on
investment capital, and a strong balance sheet.
"International Speedway (ISCA NASDAQ), a mid-cap company, promotes NASCAR
racing. They have a long-term agreement with Nextel, which we think is going to
do a lot to promote the sport and raise the company’s profile over the next few
years. It is ranked A- and we see revenues up about 16% in fiscal 2005.
Broadcast revenues are up quite a bit, based on a better deal for corporate
sponsorship. There are attractive demographics and underserved markets, such as
New York, where they are considering opening a new facility.
"Landstar Systems (LSTR NASDAQ) is a small-cap company in the trucking
area, with a unique, non-asset based business model. The firm doesn’t own the
equipment. They use independent drivers who are responsible for their own
insurance and operating costs. That allows them to be very efficient, even in an
industry downturn. They compensate the drivers with a percentage of revenues
generated per load rather than at a fixed rate per mile that you would get if
you owned the equipment. We think the stock should trade at a premium to the
trucking group. It is a strong cash flow generator with a strong balance sheet.
"Lennar (LEN NYSE) is a mid-cap homebuilder, focused mostly on
modestly priced homes. We see revenue growth of about 20% in fiscal 2005, split
about evenly between the numbers of homes sold and price increases. It has a
quality rank of A-. Although rising rates is a modest negative, the general
outlook for homebuilding company is favorable, unless mortgage rates get above
7% or so. Demographics and less cyclicality for the company of late should
continue to propel earnings.
"St. Jude Medical (STJ NYSE) is a large-cap company in the healthcare
sector. It is the leading maker of mechanical heart valves, pacemakers, and
defibrillators. It is coming out with new products that are generating strong
sales. It has a quality rank of B and generates very strong free cash flow
growth, a strong balance sheet, and a market cap of about $14
billion."
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