November 21 2009 5:03 AM  |  Make Us Your Home Page
Login | Register
Home  >  Investing  >  Stocks, Bonds, & Commodities  >  Article
PRINT
FREE E-Letters & Alerts
Comment
Bookmark and Share

Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Poised at the Precipice

Elizabeth Harrow of Schaeffer’s Investment Research says Qualcomm is testing major support levels as bearish bets flood in to the wireless giant’s stock.

Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM) was pummeled by put players on Monday, with volume ramping up to more than twice the norm. About 60,000 puts crossed the tape, compared to expected volume of just 25,000. During the course of the day, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) bought to open 25,927 puts, compared to just 1,870 calls.

As a result, QCOM's 10-day ISE put/call volume ratio now stands at a top-heavy 1.63. This ratio ranks higher than 97.6% of other such readings taken during the past year, suggesting that speculators have rarely shown a greater appetite for puts over calls. Likewise, QCOM's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) has crept higher, [revealing] that traders are growing more downbeat toward QCOM's prospects.

In keeping with this theme, short interest on QCOM ticked higher during the past month, bouncing back from a sharp decline. Specifically, the number of shares sold short climbed by 8.3% over the past month. In other words, it seems that option players aren't the only ones betting against QCOM

Drilling down on Monday's action, a massive block of 15,000 November 38 puts traded around 2:24 p.m. Also active on Monday was the November 40 put, with nearly 20,000 contracts changing hands. Implied volatility on this strike increased by 1% as a result of all the activity.

Both of these popular puts experienced a jump in open interest overnight—-the November 38 strike now has 27,920 puts in residence, up from 13,500, while open interest at the November 40 put surged from 13,920 to 29,372 contracts. With QCOM trading right around $41 at last check, short-term speculators are keeping their bets very close to the money.

On the charts, there's just cause for the up tick in pessimistic speculation surrounding QCOM. The equity has pulled back significantly from its late-July peak near $49, and the shares have underperformed the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index (SPX) by a hefty 19 percentage points during the past 60 sessions.

As a result of its underperformance, QCOM has tumbled through former support from its 10- and 20-week moving averages. These two trend lines recently completed a bearish cross, and could now switch roles to act as resistance.

However, the $40 level could step up to provide a floor for QCOM's decline. This round-number region previously acted as support in May, and could now resume its role as a technical backstop. Plus, the heavy accumulation of put open interest at the November 40 strike could provide an additional, options-related boost as expiration draws closer.

During the coming weeks, traders will want to note QCOM's progress around this key round-number level. If the stock holds support at $40, an unwinding of bearish bets could fuel a short-term rally. (It closed at $41 Tuesday—Editor.)

Subscribe to the Option Advisor here…



More Articles from Elizabeth Harrow
MoneyShow.com members Login here to comment on this article.
Enter your comments in the area provided below and press the submit button.
Please be courteous and do not use abusive language. Comments are limited to 2,000 characters.
Submit Comment Anonymously
 E-mail me when new comments are posted on this article. (Max. one e-mail/day)
Screen Name:
TOP PROS' TOP PICKS
Elizabeth Harrow

Powerful Tools:


DAILY Investing ALERT

Receive expert stock, fund and ETF picks from top editors and money managers from around the world—FREE!






Upcoming Webcasts

Jim Crimmins
Live Today!

Five Ways Traders Unknowingly Lose Money with Every Trade

Saturday, November 21, 8:00 am-9:00 am PST
Ken W. Chow
Live Today!

Predicting Trends Using the Simplest of Chart Patterns

Saturday, November 21, 8:00 am-9:00 am PST
Ron Wagner
Live Today!

How to Make $100,000-$250,000 Trading One-Hour Per Day

Saturday, November 21, 9:15 am-10:30 am PST




Video of the Day 

Commodity Markets Breakout

Ian McAvity, editor of Deliberations on World Markets, says you should research... (3:59)

Related Videos 

Value Investors' Top Picks

Two Top Canadian Stock Picks

Insight on Tech Stocks

Score Your Stocks Technically


Investing E-Letters

Expert commentary, stock, fund, and ETF picks, and the newest video interviews from leading experts.
Sign Up Now!

Our Next Live Event

The World MoneyShow Orlando 2010
Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Gaylord Palms Hotel & Convention Center

Master the Basics

Creating a Trading Plan from A to Z 

Trader John Netto provides the tools you need to develop and implement an...

Sponsored Links
Linn Energy is an independent oil and gas company...
Founded in 1886, American Water is the largest investor-owned...
Investment Models, Inc., specializes in stock market...
More Sponsored Links...
MONEYSHOW.com Logo