Quantcast

Charts In Play

Fortify Your Portfolio with Steel
Specialty: STOCKS
Published: 1/26/2012
By Tom Aspray, Senior Editor, MoneyShow.com
Tickers mentioned: XLB, AKS, X, STLD, NUE

Materials stocks are outperforming the broad market, and bottom formations on two industry leaders and the primary sector ETF make them good buys for risk-tolerant investors.

The FOMC announcement on Wednesday appears to have ended the market’s very brief corrective phase, and the market internals were strong with over 2300 stocks advancing and just over 700 declining. This has pushed the Advance/Decline (A/D) lines sharply higher.

Some of the previously lagging market sectors are now showing signs of life. As further evidence that the economy is indeed getting stronger, new sectors are likely to become leaders (see “Sector Selection Is the Key for 2012”).

Last year was a rough one for many steel stocks, but even though many declined in value, there were some bright spots, including Steel Dynamics (STLD), which reported earnings that were much higher than estimates. The Select Sector SPDR - Materials (XLB) has completed a reverse head-and-shoulders bottom formation, as have the two steel stocks that I will recommend today.

chart
Click to Enlarge

Chart Analysis: The Select Sector SPDR - Materials (XLB) closed above the neckline (line a) of its reverse head-and-shoulders (H&S) bottom formation at $36.30 last week. On Wednesday, XLB closed above last week’s high, which confirms the breakout.

  • There is resistance from last summer in the $40.20-$40.70 area with the measured target from the H&S bottom formation in the $44.50 area
  • The relative performance, or RS analysis, broke its downtrend, line b, in early 2012 and now looks ready to surpass strong resistance at line c
  • The daily on-balance volume (OBV) has confirmed the price action and now moved through its resistance at line d. It has just turned up from its weighted moving average (WMA)
  • There is initial support now at $36.50-$37 with stronger support at $35.50

AKS Steel Holding (AKS) reported a profit for the year but a loss for the fourth quarter. It retested the neckline (line f) on the news but gained over 8% on Wednesday. It is a very volatile stock and not for the faint hearted, showing a beta of 2.6.

  • The chart has strong resistance in the $13 area, line e, with the targets from the reverse H&S bottom formation also in the $13-$13.50 area
  • The RS line has completed its bottom formation by overcoming resistance at line g
  • The OBV did not make new lows with prices in October and shows a strong uptrend (line i). It is very close to breaking above the resistance at line h
  • Initial support now stands at $9-$9.40 with stronger support in the $8 area

NEXT: How to Manage Risk on High-Beta Steel Stocks

Page 1 | Page 2 | Next Page



Live Webcasts with Experts
Coming Soon!
From The Traders Expo Dallas
Wednesday, June 6, 8:00 am - 9:15 am CDT
Hubert Senters
Wednesday, June 6, 9:30 am - 10:45 am CDT
Stanley Dash
Free eLetters
Receive all-new market analysis and commentary, timely recommendations, exclusive videos, and much more from hundreds of top experts. Subscribe today!

INVESTING ELETTERS   More Details
Daily Investing Alert
Weekly Investing eLetter
Hot Off The Tape Weekly Video eLetter
TRADING ELETTERS   More Details
Daily Trading Alert
Trading Lessons
Trader Talk Podcast

Most Popular

The Week Ahead: When Will the Selling End?
After several weeks of declining stock prices, major averages are now close to major support. This...
4 Industry Groups Beating the S&P 500
Has Gold Formed a Bottom?
7 Stocks Feeding Off the Facebook IPO

TRADESHOW LOCATIONS

Dallas
 • June 6 – 9, 2012
Las Vegas
 • September 13 – 15, 2012
San Francisco
 • August 24 – 26, 2012
Sponsored Links

Princeton Research

Princeton Research, Inc., is led by well known investment analyst and economist, Mike King. After...

Royal Dutch Shell, plc

The Shell Group, (The Group), is a diverse group of energy companies with around 101,000 employees...

Aflac Incorporated

For more than 50 years, Aflac products have given policyholders the opportunity to direct cash where...

Macerich

Macerich® (NYSE: MAC) aligns exceptional retail properties in attractive US markets with the business...