Telkom Indonesia: Big Dog in Telecom

Paul Goodwin Emerging Markets Specialist and Analyst, Cabot Heritage Corporation

This new featured stock recommendation is the primary provider of wireless, data/internet, fixed line and network services in Indonesia, states Paul Goodwin, editor of Cabot Emerging Markets Investor.

Telkom Indonesia (TLK) has about 154 million customers, up 8.6% from the 1st quarter of 2015, including 4.2 million fixed broadband users, which is up 20.7%.

Its fiber-based backbone network is now over 82,000 kilometers, and serves 10 million homes. It’s significant that 90% of the company’s new mobile subscribers are signing on for 3G and 4G broadband plans.

The Indonesian government is a majority shareholder, which makes Telkom Indonesia the big dog in the build-out of Indonesia’s information infrastructure.

Indonesia is a big country, and Telkom Indonesia can’t serve it all by cable. A satellite is scheduled for launch in the 4th quarter of 2016, with another set to launch in the 2nd quarter of 2018.

A deal is also under development to lay a submarine cable connecting Indonesia to Europe with completion expected in the 4th quarter of 2016. A similar project is scheduled to connect to the US by the 1st quarter of 2017.

The company’s market cap has increased from $4.8 billion in February to $6.2 billion today. And its attractive 2.0% dividend has been augmented in the past by special dividends.

TLK put in a long basing structure from September 2014 through August 2015. The August market meltdown began a steep pullback, but the rally that began after that correction is still going on.

The stock has climbed consistently, with occasional dips to its 25-day moving average and less frequent pullbacks to its 50-day.

We recommend taking a half position in TLK to start; if both the stock and our timing indicators remain positive, we will plan to average up.

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By Paul Goodwin, Editor of Cabot Emerging Markets Investor