Steady As She Goes or S&P at 2500?

09/09/2014 10:30 am EST

Focus: STOCKS

Thomas Aspray

, Professional Trader & Analyst

The newfound bullishness of Wall Street strategists does make MoneyShow’s Tom Aspray a bit concerned but two of their stock picks are now just starting to become market leaders.

Ahead of the widely anticipated announcement by Apple, Inc. (AAPL), stocks drifted lower led by the gold miners and oil and gas stocks. More stocks declined than advanced as the McClellan oscillator has dropped back below the zero line, closing at -68.

It is difficult to imagine that AAPL can match the market’s expectations as seats closer to the front of the waiting line outside the NYC store were sold for $1250 each. The stock has already dropped over 5% from its high with monthly pivot support at $96.22. The market’s reaction to the announcement is likely to set the tone for the market over the next few days.

Apple stock is one of the picks from Barron’s mid-year survey of ten Wall Street strategists and the consensus view is for the “the bull to stay in charge for the rest of this year.”

One of their analysts became even more bullish as Federated Investor’s Stephen Auth “expects the S&P 500 to climb to 2500 in the next 18-24 months.”  He was one of the few strategists that was correctly bullish at the end of 2012. The bullish camp is becoming more crowded as two bearish market strategists from Deutsche Bank and Stifel Nicolaus have switched to the bullish camp.

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This does make me a bit nervous as following the crowd is often a dangerous strategy. Though it does not change the bullish intermediate-term outlook from the A/D lines, it does allow for a deeper correction within the major uptrend.

I do get some good ideas from the stock picks of these strategists as their fundamental research teams are top notch. The table above provides the top picks of each analyst and I have selected the four that look the best to me from a technical standpoint.

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Chart Analysis: Workday, Inc. (WDAY) is a $17.44 billion provider of cloud-based human resources software. It is trading 19.3% below its 52-week high but is still up over 13% YTD.

  • Monday’s close was just above the daily chart resistance, line a, at $92.15 from the early July high.
  • The monthly projected pivot resistance is at $98.02 with the quarterly resistance at $102.83.
  • The daily relative performance has closed above its resistance, line c, which indicates it is becoming a market leader.
  • The weekly RS line (not shown) has been above its WMA since early August and has turned up sharply.
  • The daily OBV has formed lower highs, line e, as there was heavy selling at the end of August.
  • The weekly OBV (not shown) has been leading prices higher as it broke out to new all time highs in the middle of last month.
  • There is minor support in the $91.55-$92 area.
  • The rising 20-day EMA and the monthly pivot are in the $88-$88.44 area.

Salesforce.com, Inc. (CRM) is a $37.4 billion company that is likely better known than WDAY but also provides cloud-based enterprise computing solutions. The stock is now 9.91% below its 52-week high but is still up 9.37% YTD.

  • The daily chart shows that CRM has been recently bumping into resistance (line f) that does back to March.
  • There is quarterly pivot resistance now at $62.23 with the weekly starc+ band at $64.68.
  • A convincing breakout of the daily trading range (lines f and g) has upside targets in the $67-$69 area.
  • The relative performance shows a similar trading range, lines h and i, that appears to have already been completed.
  • The daily on-balance volume (OBV) staged an impressive upside breakout last month as the resistance at line j, was overcome.
  • The weekly OBV (not shown) is just barely above its WMA.
  • There is initial support at $57.80 and the rising 20-day EMA.
  • There is more important support in the $55.20 (quarterly pivot) and $56.30 area.

NEXT PAGE: Two More Stocks to Watch

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Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) is a $144.5 billion dollar communication giant that is trading just slightly below its 53-week high of $56.49.

  • The daily starc+ band is just a bit lower at $56.40.
  • The quarterly projected pivot resistance is at $58.24.
  • The daily RS analysis shows a gradually upward sloping trading channel, lines c and d.
  • The RS line has just moved back above its WMA and the weekly RS line is also in a trading range.
  • The daily OBV broke through its downtrend, line e, in July.
  • It has continued to rise very sharply as it surged powerfully in the past week.
  • The rising 20-day EMA is at $54.71 with the monthly pivot at $54.11, which corresponds to the daily support at line b.
  • There is more important daily chart support in the $52.50 area.

McKesson Corporation (MCK) is a $46.23 billion provider of drugs, medical supplies, and healthcare information technology. The stock is very close to its 52 week high and is up 24.13% YTD.

  • The daily starc+ band is not far above current levels at $201.63 with the weekly at $206.41.
  • MCK is currently trading 2.7% above its 20-day EMA at $194.81, so it is in a high risk area.
  • There is stronger support now at $192.20 and the monthly pivot.
  • The support going back to the June lows, line h, is now at $187.57.
  • The daily RS line has turned up sharply over the past few days as it appears to have held support at line i.
  • The weekly relative performance (not shown) has been positive since early 2013 and is still holding above its WMA.
  • The daily OBV shows a sharper uptrend (line j) then the RS line and is close to making new highs.
  • Overall volume has declined over the past month but the weekly OBV is still making new highs.

What it Means: The relative performance analysis clearly makes Workday, Inc. (WDAY) and Salesforce.com, Inc. (CRM) my two favorite picks. Both need a pullback so that a reasonable stop can be used as both stocks can be quite volatile.

Though the daily technical outlook is also positive for Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) and McKesson Corporation (MCK), they are both near their 52-week highs, which increases the risk at current levels. They may be, therefore, more vulnerable on a market correction.

How to Profit: For Workday, Inc. (WDAY) go 50% long at $90.52 and 50% long at $89.66 with a stop at $84.93 (risk of approx. 5.7%).

For Salesforce.com, Inc. (CRM) go 50% long at $58.03 and 50% long at $56.77 with a stop at $54.71 (risk of approx. 4.6%).

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