Fundamental headwinds due to the government shutdown along with technical weakness, a break of risin...
How Are IBD's Winners and Losers Doing This Week?
12/10/2014 10:40 am EST
It is important to note how market leaders react during market corrections, so MoneyShow's Tom Aspray takes a technical look to see how last week's best and worst performing stocks from Investors Business Daily's Top 50 are doing this week.
It was certainly a turnaround Tuesday as the S&P futures opened the regular session down 18 points and had lost another 9 points before lunch. The market internals were quite negative as was the sentiment from a number of analysts.
The futures ended just down slightly on the day with advancing stocks leading the advancers 1900 to 1200. This has helped the McClellan oscillator to rise slightly to -56 but it is still in a clear downtrend. It will take several positive days before it could turn bullish.
The reversal was spurred in part by the rebound in crude oil prices, where the bearish sentiment has been very high. Crude is again lower in early trading and not all stocks were bought at lower levels Tuesday as one of the Dow's most oversold, AT&T, Inc. (T) still lost almost 3% on the day.
It is important to note how market leaders react during market corrections
and that is especially true when there is an intraday reversal. Therefore, I
wanted to take a look at how last week's two best and worst performing stocks
from Investors Business Daily's Top 50 (see
their weekend review) are doing this week.
Chart Analysis: Noah Holdings Ltd. (NOAH) is a $1.2 billion dollar Chinese company that provides services to high net worth individuals in China. It was up 23.3% last week and a whopping 44.94% in the past three months.
- NOAH was down 3.48% Tuesday on five times the average volume.
- However, it should be noted that it closed at $21.90, which was 8.8% above the day's low at $20.12.
- The Monday high at $25.50 was well above the daily starc- band.
- This was a test of the November 2013 high of $25.51.
- The daily relative performance broke its downtrend, line c, in early October, when prices were in a tight range.
- The daily OBV broke its downtrend, line d, about a week later, but well before prices started to trend higher.
- The OBV has dropped below its rising WMA after confirming the new highs.
- The 20-day EMA is at $18.53 with the monthly pivot at $18.36.
Another of last week's big winners was Avago Technologies (AVGO), which was up 11.3% last week. It is a $26 billion maker of semiconductor products. It is up 95.77% YTD.
- On Tuesday, AVGO had a low of $97.25, but closed at $102.64, up 1.9% for the day.
- The high last Friday at $105 was just above the quarterly projected pivot resistance at $104.53.
- The 161.8% Fibonacci retracement resistance at $104.84 was also exceeded. It was calculated from the September to October correction.
- The weekly starc+ band is at $108.11.
- The daily relative performance broke through resistance, line e, in late November.
- The daily RS has confirmed the new highs as has the weekly.
- The daily on-balance volume (OBV) broke through its resistance, line f, in the middle of November.
- The Tuesday low partially filled last week's gap, with the 20-day EMA at $94.01.
had a weekly close above the quarterly
pivot ($82.11) on October 31.
Next: The Two Worst Performing Stocks from the IBD Top 50|pagebreak|
One the weakest IBD Top 50 was Five Below, Inc. (FIVE), which is a $2.0 billion specialty retailer. It was down 19.4% last week and is down 13.58% YTD.
- The late November high at $47.89 exceeded the upper parallel trading channel, line a.
- It also came close to the daily and weekly starc+ bands.
- FIVE gapped sharply lower last Friday on a further revision of its earning's outlook.
- The lower boundary of the trading range (line b) was broken and Tuesday's close was on the daily starc- band.
- The monthly projected pivot support is at $34.65.
- The daily relative performance did not confirm the recent highs as it made a lower high, line c.
- The daily OBV did make a new high with prices, but has just dropped below two month support, line d.
- There is initial resistance now at $40 with the 20-day EMA at $41.74.
Autohome, Inc. (ATHM) was also hit hard last week, losing 11.9%. It is now up a meager 0.38% YTD as it has dropped 21.56% in the past three months. It is a $3.9 billion Chinese online auto site for both buyers and owners.
- ATHM broke two month support, line f, at the start of the month.
- It was up 5.22% Tuesday after dropping below the daily starc- band.
- There is further support at the July low of $31.85.
- The weekly starc- band is at $30.18.
- The daily RS line confirmed the break of price support as it had been dropping faster than prices.
- The uptrend in the daily OBV, line h, was broken on November 12.
- The weekly OBV (not shown) is also well below its WMA.
- First resistance at the October low of $38.54 with the declining 20-day EMA at $41.24.
What it Means: Last week's best performer acted like strong stocks in Tuesday's session and the daily charts continue to look positive. ATHM also had an impressive upside reversal with the market, which may mean it is sold out, at least, for the short-term.
Several of the small-caps discussed in More Bullish Small-Cap Stocks were also able to stage upside reversals on Tuesday, which supports the positive outlook.
How to Profit: No new recommendation.
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