USD/CHF Exhausted?

10/14/2008 9:34 am EST

Focus: FOREX

Chart
 (Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; uptrend lines in green; downtrend line in red; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.)

Recent price action on the USD/CHF, a daily chart of which is shown, appears to have exhausted much of the upward momentum that has characterized this pair in the last several weeks. Currently, we are seeing the beginnings of what may be a downturn after price was rejected at a confluence of two resistance factors.

One of these factors is the top of a rough parallel uptrend channel (marked "A"). The other factor is the historical support/resistance offered by the 1.1485 region (marked "B"). Oscillators like the displayed Stochastics, which are emerging unmistakably down from overbought, are lending strength to a bearish outlook for the pair.

In the event that a bearish move plays out, the first key support to the downside resides around the level of the last swing low (in the 1.1125 region). To the upside, the aforementioned 1.1485 level should continue to serve as resistance going forward.

By James Chen, Chief Technical Analyst, FX Solutions

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