Price and Time: 4-Year Low in AUD/USD

11/26/2014 9:00 am EST

Focus: FOREX

Kristian Kerr

Chief Technical Strategist, Forex Capital Markets LLC

In this video, Kristian Kerr, of DailyFX.com, offers a price and time analysis for two currency pairs—plus the yellow metal—and he explains why only unexpected aggressive strength back through .8700 would undermine the negative structure for this one currency pair in particular.




Foreign Exchange Price and Time at a Glance:

Price and Time Analysis: USD/JPY

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Charts Created using Marketscope—Prepared by Kristian Ker
Click to Enlarge

  • USD/JPY is in consolidation mode below 119.00.
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive on the exchange rate while above 116.80.
  • The 119.00 area is interim resistance ahead of the next key Gann pivot at 119.50 and a long term retracement zone at 120.25.
  • The next turn window of significance is eyed early next month.
  • A close under 116.80 would turn us negative on USD/JPY.

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the Long Side While Over 116.80.

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Price and Time Analysis: GOLD

chart
Charts Created using Marketscope—Prepared by Kristian Ker
Click to Enlarge

  • Gold has moved steadily higher since finding support at the start of the month near the measured move of the March-June decline in the 1135 area.
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the metal while below 1212.
  • A close back under 1175 is needed to re-instill downside momentum.
  • A minor turn window is eyed later this week.
  • A close above 1212 would turn us more constructive on the metal.

GOLD Strategy: Square

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Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD

chart
Charts Created using Marketscope—Prepared by Kristian Ker
Click to Enlarge

AUD/USD cracked the 50% retracement of the 2008-2011 advance at .8540 early Tuesday morning to trade at its lowest level in four years. We had seen risk for some further consolidation following last week’s reversal—given it came during a key cyclical period—but the inability of the Aussie to maintain gains following the surprise Chinese interest rate cut announcement, coupled with the break of such a key long-term retracement level, has effectively negated the positive cyclicality. A daily settlement under .8540/30 will be further confirmation of a downside resumption and should set the stage for steeper decline into the middle of next month. Only unexpected aggressive strength back through .8700 would undermine the negative structure.

By Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist, DailyFX.com

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