Forex Technical Analysis: USD/JPY More of a Bystander Tuesday

07/08/2015 9:00 am EST

Focus: FOREX

Greg Michalowski

Chief Currency Analyst, FXDD

Greg Michalowski, of ForexLive.com, takes a technical look at this currency pair that's been stuck in the mud while other pairs have moved in favor of the greenback and though Greg thinks there is still some room to roam for the pair, he's currently hesitant to pick a direction.

Holds 100-Hour MA Above and Low from Monday's NY Trade

As the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD all move in the favor of the greenback, the USD/JPY has been stuck in the mud. The JPY crosses are all falling hard Tuesday, but not the USD/JPY. The low to high trading range Tuesday is only 55 pips, which is less than the 97 pip average over the last month of trading. This suggests that there is some room to roam (i.e. extend the range either to the upside or the downside). I am not sure I can pick a way.  Can you?

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Technically, the pair has held the 100-hour MA on the topside and the low from Monday's NY session on the downside. In June, there were a number of swing lows from 122.42 to 122.55. The lows over the last seven trading days are lower (compared to earlier in June), but overall the activity in the pair remains quite choppy.

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For traders, a move above the 100- and 200-hour MA (blue and green lines in the chart above) would be something different. The price of the USD/JPY did move above the 200-hour MA on last Thursday, but tumbled back below. This has been the only time spent above since the Greek announcement of a referendum. 

On the downside, the low Tuesday and Monday at 122.32—followed by another low from Monday at 122.18—are the next targets. Below that and the 121.93 (low from June 30) and the 121.80 low from...hmmmm Monday, will be other targets. 

Not sure I love the look or action but be on the lookout for a break and run perhaps...

PS.  Keep an eye on the EUR/JPY. That pair is down on the day on Tuesday but has the 100-day MA ahead at the 133.52. The low Tuesday reached 133.66 and currently trades at 133.86. Making the 100-day MA more juicy is the 50% of the move up from the April low comes in at 133.565. The combination increases the levels importance technically. Traders will tend to buy on a test of the dual levels.

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By Greg Michalowski of ForexLive.com

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