How to Form a Long-Term Trading Outlook (Part 1)

11/17/2008 10:03 am EST


Timothy Morge


I can't speak for other professional traders, but I am always wary of economic indicators produced and released by the government, like GDP and Unemployment. I went to undergraduate and graduate school at the University of Chicago, and on your first day of school, they make you walk through an old stone arch out in the Quadrangles. It's a rite of passage, signaling the beginning of your "Chicago school" education, and engraved deep within the stone arch, in Latin, are the words "And the truth shall set you free."

I studied under some wonderful professors there: Dr. Milton Friedman, Dr. Victor Zarnowitz, Dr. Beryl Sprinkel, Dr. Carl Sagan, David Mamet—I even had an office next to Studs Terkel near the end of my studies in the Graduate Schools. (Studs recently passed away—and we all went out and had a beer to celebrate his life at the local pub we used to hang out at and listen to his stories about the world when he was "young and frisky.") One common thread linked what all these great thinkers taught me: "Believe what you know to be true. When someone tells you something is true, take it and examine and prove to yourself that it is indeed the truth."

More in Part 2 tomorrow.

I wish you all good trading!


Timothy Morge

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