Nasdaq Composite Playing Catch Up?

03/06/2013 6:00 am EST

Focus: TRADING

While the DJIA and S&P 500 are getting all of the attention, the Nasdaq Composite could be trying to join the party, notes Greg Harmon of Dragonfly Capital.

There you go. I said it. I have been getting lonely as what seems the only bull not to capitulate. Yeah quote me your statistics about the AAII Sentiment being very bullish and Institutional Investors having largest allocation to stocks. Blah, blah, blah. I do not know what they ask in their surveys to get those responses but they seem to miss the mark.

As soon as we drop five points on the S&P 500 everyone is in a panic, thinking the market is in for a big correction. That does not equate with record high bullish sentiment. A proper record high bullish sentiment response would be, ‘cool, let me buy more!,’ not pulling an Al Roker at the White House scene.

What I do know is price. It does not lie. And what price is telling me is that we are in a bull market. I have said a lot about the S&P 500 lately so let me shift focus to the Nasdaq Composite for another perspective.

First thing that came into your head was the crash in 2000 right? Don’t lie, it’s just you there. Well, I remember that too. I had just started dating my wife. She was working for an Internet consulting company and had options worth into the seven figures before that. Had I started dating her sooner and gained her trust earlier, she could have also saved seven figures. That was 13 years ago, and not today. But there is information in that crash. It plays out over time.

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This data can be looked at in many different ways, but today I will give you a very rosy, optimistic view. Harmonics looks at the natural flow and symmetry found in nature, that we all understand instinctively, and applies it to price history.

Several patterns emerge and two of them are possible in the current Nasdaq Composite chart. Forget the silly names, but the two patterns have upside targets of 3900 and 6160 for the Nasdaq Composite before it finally reverses. That is at least 22% above the current levels, and potentially a near double from here.

By Greg Harmon of Dragonfly Capital

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