The Magical Potion of Probability and Why Trading Is Gambling

11/07/2013 11:00 am EST

Focus: TRADING

Shonn Campbell and Matt LaCoco talk about the magical potion of probability and to what extent trading is, in fact, gambling. They discuss how traders are just in denial about being gamblers, asserting that traders aren’t much different from professional poker players or card counters who use statistics to make their money. Shonn and Matt suggest that trading is merely card counting—with candles! They also talk about “the gut feeling” and how it’s essentially the intuition of probability.

 
Play in Windows Media format

Play in RealPlayer format
Play mp3 stream

Direct link to mp3 file
 

Matt LaCoco: So you have been down this probability path lately and looking at all kinds of weird data, as have I. I have put it in a database and I see nowhere is it more clear to me that we gamble than here and now after you have steered me towards this card-counting concept.

Shonn Campbell: Oh my gosh, right.

Matt LaCoco: So now, I am looking at things in that way. I have found 51 perfect dojis on the Australian dollar in 2013. And the information that I can glean from the candles before and after those. I don’t need a chart to place a trade on those any more.

Shonn Campbell: Exactly.

Matt LaCoco: So tell me more about what you have found. 

Shonn Campbell: So, I felt really bad about this at first, right. I was like, I think we, as traders, try so hard to get away from the idea that we are gamblers, right. You always hear this debate. Well, we’re not gamblers. We have a system, we have precision, and we have all of this stuff, right. We trade off the news.

Matt LaCoco: Yeah.

Shonn Campbell: That is not gambling. 

Matt LaCoco: Oh, no, not a chance. 

Shonn Campbell: Right, so, no, I felt really bad about it first. I am like there is no way that this could ever be true. There is a sense of a system is repeatable and you do it over and over again. That is a method, not a gamble. The more I looked at professional poker players and card counters in Blackjack and all of these guys that purely use statistics. They are like calculators in their head, right, and they use these statistics, they memorize them, and they get to this place where it doesn’t matter what is actually happening with the other players. All that matters is hand.

Matt LaCoco: They are truly playing the odds.

Shonn Campbell: Yeah, my hand right now. In poker, I have two cards so they have one hand and they are playing, the odds change every time a new card is out or somebody folds. The odds continue to change so they have to reprogram the odds, and they are constantly risk assessing with their chips and figuring out what the probability is of that hand working out.

Matt LaCoco: Right.

Shonn Campbell: It fascinated me, so I said, okay, is there a way to count cards in trading?

Matt LaCoco: Now, these guys that you are talking about, they are making money.

Shonn Campbell They are making a ton of money.

Matt LaCoco: They are gambling for a living, they are playing cards for a living, they are making big. 

Shonn Campbell: Absolutely, they are gambling for a living, they are playing card for a living, they are playing probabilities for a living. I mean they are not gambling any more. They are not sitting at the slot machine.

Matt LaCoco: Right, they are doing what we try to convince ourselves that we are doing as traders, that we are not gambling because we have an edge or we have some frickin’ lines on our chart, and they have magical powers or something like that. The magical power lies in the probability and the way in which you fold probability into your process.

Shonn Campbell: Yep, yeah, and then probability into risk management, right, because when you read about them, the lingo is the same. You know, pot risk on their chips, the lingo is all the same. You can read a professional poker article and it is the same as reading a trading article.

Matt LaCoco: Absolutely. I was thinking about that in the shower. You know, I mean it truly is gambling. Price goes up, price goes down, that is it, and when we take a trade, we are placing a bet. There is no other way to accurately describe it. 

Shonn Campbell: Yeah, exactly. We are trying to mitigate risk on that bet and we are trying to make that pay.

Matt LaCoco: So probability tells us when to take the trade or when it is a trade, it tells us how much to put on that trade, if it is a big trade, a little trade.

NEXT PAGE: Gut Feeling is Probability

|pagebreak|

Shonn Campbell: Exactly, because that is the last rule, forget my first two, but I know my third rule and it is make the probability pay, right. If the probability is in your favor, I don’t care whether you stack it or whether you put a big lot size on there at the beginning and just say if this doesn’t work right away, I am out, like you always talk about. That is probability. I mean, that is saying that the probabilities are in my favor. I am going to make it pay because every other time, I can take the small loss or I can add up a bunch of small wins or play the probabilities properly and say, okay, I made 1.6 pips on this one and then I made 5.6 on this one, but when it goes 20, it is paying me. 

Matt LaCoco: Right. That is an important concept for a trader to think about because if you go down the path that you are told to go down by so many traders where you implement the system and everything is calculated and computed, it is always the same every time, you are trading one lot until your account gets to this size and then you are trading a lot and a half, or what have you. I have done that. I have done it a lot. The problem with that is, personally, I have these, I get on and I get off with my trading. I have weeks or months that I can do no wrong and then there is the other kind of weeks or months where things just aren’t working out, so if you have a week that is as bad as your good week is good and the lot sizes are the same, essentially we are breaking even. When I learned to recognize when I was on a roll and learned to recognize when I was not on a roll and adjust my trades accordingly, like you say, make the probability pay. If I am just hitting it this week, I am likely to hit it some more this week and when I hit it some more this week, I want the trades to be bigger. I want to make more money so that when my week is off, I can adjust it down and say, look, I am having a bad week. Let me go small this week or let me not go this week.

Shonn Campbell: Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, not at all.

Matt LaCoco: That is what I do now, I will just not do it all. I play a lot of the demo but man. 

Shonn Campbell: But that is what you talked about, right. You talked about the gut feeling and I think that.

Matt LaCoco: Oh, I have been waiting for you to talk about this.

Shonn Campbell: Yeah, like we talked about before, it is like the gut feeling is just the intuition of probability at the end of the day, I think, right. I can say I see three blue candles and I am getting into a level and I think I should get out. You just say well my gut feeling says I need to get out here because it has gone far enough in my direction. Well, I am just counting the gut feelings, right. I am just saying, okay, here is my process, and when I see this, I am triggered, and that is it. I am waiting for this candle to close, I am going to do this, and then let it go one one-hour candle, and whatever it goes, if it goes one pip, great. If it goes 50 pips, great, but I am going one one-hour candle, that is it.

Matt LaCoco: One one-hour candle. The probabilities.

Shonn Campbell: Yeah, because there should be a color change candle after so many candles or whatever, however you come up with the probabilities.

Matt LaCoco: And if it doesn’t, it doesn’t.

Shonn Campbell: And you wait for the next set.

Matt LaCoco: And you know how many times out of X that it doesn’t.

Shonn Campbell: Exactly, and you know which session it works in. You know the average range of a candle so you can say, okay, this candle has gone this far, I think I should get out now. 

Matt LaCoco: Right.

Shonn Campbell: I am not going to wait around for a 50-pip move when it takes 10 of those candles in my direction to actually make 50 pips. I am not going to sit around.

Matt LaCoco: It is all about making it easier, right.

Shonn Campbell: Make it easier. 

Matt LaCoco: It is about making it objective.

Shonn Campbell: Yeah. If an average one-hour candle moves 15 pips, why would you sit in for longer? Why would you wait for the probability to decrease in your favor on the next candle? Why would you do it?

Matt LaCoco: That is right, that is right. Sitting there watching it.

Shonn Campbell: Exactly, and getting pissed that you just lost half of your profits because now that next candle has gone halfway back up and you are like, well, crap. 

Matt LaCoco: Yeah, man, when you watch it like that, it never does what you want it to do or it does do what you want it to do but the way in which it does it spooks you. It makes you just out of the process.

NEXT PAGE: Trading Without Charts

|pagebreak|

Shonn Campbell: Yeah, exactly. Yep, yep, but I still go back to what you said. If I can take lunch money, I am going to take lunch money, and I am going to do it every single day.

Matt LaCoco: That ‘s right, lunch money every day. 

Shonn Campbell: Every day. 

Matt LaCoco: Or not every day. It really, as time goes on, day in and day out becomes less important to me because it just, when it is part of that process, it just happens on a weekly basis, on a monthly basis. 

Shonn Campbell: Yeah, you recognize.

Matt LaCoco: Like Kenny Rogers said, you know when to hold them, when to fold them.

Shonn Campbell: Yeah, there you go. There is the trader’s song. 

Matt LaCoco: Yeah, for sure. 

Shonn Campbell: That should be the new podcast song.

Matt LaCoco: The new podcast thing, yep. 

Shonn Campbell: I don’t think Rob will do that.

Matt LaCoco: Yeah. The only way to trade for a living is to look at everything the same every time. 

Shonn Campbell: Yeah.

Matt LaCoco: So that when you look at a price chart or whatever you look at to take your trade, that it always looks the same so you always understand what it is doing.

Shonn Campbell: Yep, exactly. 

Matt LaCoco: And taking stochastics, RSI, pivot points, taking all of this stuff off your charts, taking the charts off the charts, and strictly using fundamental probabilities discovered.

Shonn Campbell: Yeah, so like you are taking it one step further than I am. I still have charts. I still have candlesticks, and I will probably use levels when it is over.  You are going even farther. You are like taking naked charts to a whole new level.

Matt LaCoco: Yeah, taking price off the chart. 

Shonn Campbell: You are taking price off the chart. 

Matt LaCoco: I have taken the price off the chart. 

Shonn Campbell: You are taking the chart off the chart.

Matt LaCoco: And essentially, it can still be looked at from the perspective of candlesticks. It is just each candle is a record in my database. 

Shonn Campbell: Exactly.

Matt LaCoco: How that particular record relates to the previous record or the record after, and that is the thing about the analysis I have been doing recently, this week especially. It has been essentially a three-candle analysis.

Shonn Campbell: Okay.

Matt LaCoco: None of this, I don’t care what the 20-period average is or the close or any of that stuff. I am looking at three candles at a time. I am looking at the current candle, the next candle, and the previous candle.

Shonn Campbell: Yeah. 

Matt LaCoco: And that is all I want to play is, like you said, the candles. 

Shonn Campbell: Exactly.

Matt LaCoco: I want to play so what is the next record going to be. It is going to be blue, it is going to be red.

Shonn Campbell: Exactly, and I don’t care how many pips it is.

Matt LaCoco: Right. The only thing that I, because I have found a significant number of candles, and it is hard to find them on your chart because they just get lost, but there is a significant, a measurable number of candles, one-hour candles, Australian dollar, that don’t move ever, period. They open, they close at the same level, and there is no body, and these are really interesting to me. They all happen, middle of the Asian session, 20 or 11 o’clock at night around here, and I am starting to see a correlation between those candles and what happens in the London session afterwards. More on that later.

Shonn Campbell: Yeah, yeah. 

Matt LaCoco: Yeah, sure, there will be plenty of that. So, you are looking for probable formations or are they individual candles?

Shonn Campbell: No, it is strictly card counting with candles, right. 

Matt LaCoco: So you are starting with how many times does a certain candle.

Shonn Campbell: How many times does two blue candles in a row happen? How many times does three blue candles in a row happen? Four, five, ten, whatever. 

Matt LaCoco: Your deuce, your straight.

Shonn Campbell: Exactly. Right now all I am doing is I am not even creating a system. I am just data collecting.

Matt LaCoco: Sure.

Shonn Campbell: It is not even thinking about trading right now. 

Matt LaCoco: This is what I have discovered though, Shonn, is that is the system. That is the trading system right there.

NEXT PAGE: How Sub-Conscious Analysis Works

|pagebreak|

Shonn Campbell: Exactly, exactly. All I am doing is collecting data and saying, okay, how many times has it moved two candles? How many times has it moved three candles? Then, what happens after those things happen? What is the continuation pattern? Does it retrace? What does it do? What happens when it goes into a level? What happens when, you know, it changes session? What are most of the sessions doing? Are they expanding a lot or are they staying, are they ranging and then closing close to where they opened? Is the market expanding after that? I am trying to take in as much data as I possibly can purely based on the color, a bull or a bear candle, and then the range of either a candle or a session or a day. I am trying to figure out where it converges, right. What is the rubber band point? 

Matt LaCoco: Right, where we start heading back to mean.

Shonn Campbell: Yeah, because, think about it, okay. If we went in and we traded for 200 pips a day, imagine how crazy. I mean it has to expand and then contract, then expand and then contract, then expand and then contract, because that is all these guys are doing everyday. They are expanding and contracting a price and they are making money off it because we are too stupid to try and play that.

Matt LaCoco: Right, try to play it, yeah. We keep waiting for it.

Shonn Campbell: We are like we need 100 pips. No, they are doing 10, 15.

Matt LaCoco: How many times have you decided to throw everything away, change it all up, and you are finally going to start trading these breakouts. You are finally going to do the breakouts and what happens?

Shonn Campbell: I am done with it, price level breakouts, that is it. 

Matt LaCoco: Stop out for 100 pips every single time, right, because you get in on the low part or the high part.

Shonn Campbell: Exactly, exactly. 

Matt LaCoco: I think that what you said earlier, I don’t care how far it goes, I just care about the color of the candle. 

Shonn Campbell: Yeah.

Matt LaCoco: How easy does that make it? Essentially, you are just coming home per se, coming home from the office, and you find out how much money you made that day. 

Shonn Campbell: Yeah, absolutely, because what it does is those breakouts, those breakouts, if I only have one candle.

Matt LaCoco: Shonn is looking for a handout.

Shonn Campbell: That’s right.

Matt LaCoco: You don’t even want to take the lunch money any more. You want the market to hand you the lunch money. 

Shonn Campbell: I don’t even want the lunch money. I want your change, I want your change. That’s right. But if it only has one candle and it is trying to break out, I wouldn’t ever touch that now. There is no way. 

Matt LaCoco: Right.

Shonn Campbell: I want to see three, four, or five candles into that level and I want to play it the other way for a candle or two. I want to see expansion and then the need to go back to some sort of mean. It may not go all the way back. It may not go back to 50. It may only go back 1% but I can take that.

Matt LaCoco: Ah, see, and this is a great point because this is trading, what you see, but only if you saw it coming.

Shonn Campbell: Exactly.

Matt LaCoco: So, the guy who just trades what he sees trades that first candle breaking through the level without having any sense of commitment or momentum.

Shonn Campbell: Yeah, that is exactly right.

Matt LaCoco: It is always the same shit, man, and especially with this probability thing. I have been thinking about those gut feelings and say a lot you know. I feel like I have been essentially trading these types of probabilities the entire time.

Shonn Campbell: I completely agree. It is probably our conversations that made me think this. 

Matt LaCoco: I just didn’t know it.

Shonn Campbell: Yeah. 

Matt LaCoco: Because like you said in a text message to me one time, it said it perfectly. It is the subconscious. It is the subconscious analysis of probability that you are just not aware of.

Shonn Campbell: Exactly.

Matt LaCoco: You get this gut feeling, that is the subconscious saying hey, I’ve studied all of this before, you need to trade this.

Shonn Campbell: Exactly, exactly. I’ve seen, you and I have both looked at probably millions of candles, right, over the years.

Matt LaCoco: Oh, geez, a lot more that I want to have looked at.

Shonn Campbell: But there is data stored in there.

Matt LaCoco: There is data in there, that is right.

NEXT PAGE: Always Assess the Probabilities

|pagebreak|

Shonn Campbell: There is this subconscious data in there and it says, okay, when this thing is going and it has gained 50 pips already and it is trying to go through a level, is that really going to happen? I see it go so I am going to take the trade. Then, it wicks out and you are like, crap, I knew that was going to happen, so I am trying to measure that. I am trying to say, okay, instead of knowing that, okay, it has gone 50 pips and I have this hunch that I should trade it in the opposite direction and not the breakout. I am saying, okay, if it does this and then it does this, I can trade that in the opposite direction.

Matt LaCoco: Right, I know once it has gone 56 pips, then I have high probability that it is going to go back to 30.

Shonn Campbell: I am expanding the range, it has hit the level, I am expanding the range, and it needs to come back towards a mean in some way, shape, or form. 

Matt LaCoco: All right. It’s like psychic Bollinger bands. We have gone here, we are coming back to the mean. 

Shonn Campbell: Oh my goodness. 

Matt LaCoco:  Yeah, I love it though. I love the objectivity there that it brings to this. I look at the spreadsheets that you sent me. I actually see trades there. I am like, oh, this is just a list of red trades and blue trades.

Shonn Campbell: Exactly, exactly, and there are high probability ones and there are low probability ones. We could trade the low probability ones and not try and make them pay us the same way that we try to make the high probability ones pay us, but they could stay a little bit, right.  

Matt LaCoco: Right. 

Shonn Campbell: You are going to lose some, you are going to win some. I don’t know if it is 50/50, I don’t know what that is yet. I haven’t sat down and done that yet but you can trade those or you can just sit and wait for the high probability ones. One thing that I read in the gambler’s math stuff that sort of, I think I said it to you sort of, it has just been this process of piquing my interest in this. That is where I saw the risk management. They have figured it out and I don’t have the exact math but they figured out like up to 10 times, you need to double your trade size so that the probabilities work in your favor to make money on that, and it was roulette. Every time you spin, if you lose, you need to double your bet so that you can make money on the probability of the next one, and you can do that up to 10 times. As long as you make the right call by the 10th one, you are going to make money. 

Matt LaCoco: By the 10th one. 

Shonn Campbell: But, if the probabilities don’t fall in your favor by the 10th spin, then you are out. You have lost a good chunk of money.

Matt LaCoco: Which is another good point, too, that I think that what we are talking about eliminates the, it makes it easy to know when you are done, which I think is a huge problem for traders or at least it has been for me. 

Shonn Campbell: Yes, absolutely. How many times have you set a 50-pips profit target and you are like well it has gone 27 and it is not looking good. Should I wait? 

Matt LaCoco: Yeah. Should I hold this? Should I let it go to my profit? Should I let my winner run? 

Shonn Campbell: And there is no reasonable explanation for it except I am supposed to let it go in my profit target, right. Outside of that, what do you have? 

Matt LaCoco: Yeah, yeah. Why not take the money?

Shonn Campbell: Why not? 

Matt LaCoco: You know where I firmly stand on this, take your money and run concept. I laugh because I do catch a lot of ridicule for it. Sure, yeah. 

Shonn Campbell: It is amazing.

Matt LaCoco:  I’ll put a trade on with a 500-pip limit order in case I get drunk or fall asleep or whatever and a miracle happens. 

Shonn Campbell: Right.

Matt LaCoco:  The chances are 20 minutes is going to go by and I am going to be tired of it and I am going to take whatever it is at in 20 minutes or whatever it is at in an hour or 10 pips is enough. I am not afraid because then, what do I have, in terms of probability. I have 100% chance of making money.

Shonn Campbell: Exactly, and what happens to the probability on the next candle? You never think about that. How many candles, how many average Aussie/Swiss candles would it take for me too reach my profit target if they all went in successive order? 

Matt LaCoco: Right.

Shonn Campbell: How many would it take? Well, if it takes six and the probability of it going six immediately without any kind of pullback or retracement, my probability on that sucks. Why would I sit and wait up for it and drive myself crazy? 

NEXT PAGE: The Epiphany of Probability

|pagebreak|

Matt LaCoco: Yeah, absolutely. Take the money and run. 

Shonn Campbell: Take my one candle and go.

Matt LaCoco: Yeah, whether it is five pips, 20 pips. You know, that was the epiphany for me with trading was stop trying to make money and just let it pay your bills and then it stockpiles.

Shonn Campbell: Yeah, that is right. 

Matt LaCoco: And this probability stuff, man, this is like magical potion, Shonn.

Shonn Campbell: I love it, I love it. 

Matt LaCoco: This is a way to find out if this particular candle formation is a, dojis are a good one, because you have a lot of people over here saying well this is a reversal indication and then you have people on another camp that are telling you no, this is a continuation indication. 

Shonn Campbell: Exactly, yep.

Matt LaCoco: I think they are both right.

Shonn Campbell: I think they are.

Matt LaCoco: Not at the same time. 

Shonn Campbell: Well, it happened before. Exactly.

Matt LaCoco: Like you say, what happened before it, what happened before it, tells us. It gives us that clue.

Shonn Campbell: It gives us the clue, yeah.

Matt LaCoco: This is a continuation doji. This is a reversal doji. This is a one-minute doji so it doesn’t mean anything.

Shonn Campbell:  Exactly.

Matt LaCoco: Get on the right chart, you idiot. 

Shonn Campbell: I would like to trade the one-minute doji on the one-hour chart please.

Matt LaCoco: Yes, awesome, for like a hundredth of a pip.

Shonn Campbell: As a reversal. 

Matt LaCoco: I would take it.

Shonn Campbell: That is right.

Matt LaCoco: Only with a narrow spread, though. 

Shonn Campbell: That is right. 

Matt LaCoco: That is the thing, too, is we can discover the trades that we shouldn’t take in light of times of day, what the spread is at that particular time. How many times have you been whipped out by a spread?

Shonn Campbell: Oh my gosh.

Matt LaCoco: Doesn’t that suck? 

Shonn Campbell: Yeah.

Matt LaCoco: Doesn’t that suck? For a guy like me who has done the vast majority on really short-term charts for really short profits, when I am trying to get five pips, man, and then the spread goes from three to nine at 3 o’clock in the afternoon, you know, what do you do?

Shonn Campbell: It makes it tough, it makes it tough. 

Matt LaCoco: Because I am still an idiot and trade at two in the afternoon.

Shonn Campbell: 300% more on your profit target.

Matt LaCoco: I won’t lie, man, I still like that because of the probability. Wow, it just hit me man. I like to play this afternoon drift in the dollar yen. You will have five-minute candles that are two pips complete ranges but you end up covering 20 pips almost every day, almost every day.

Shonn Campbell: Exactly, and that is the funny thing, right, is how many times a year, well the market is not moving today. As a probability trader, I would rather the market not be moving. 

Matt LaCoco: Okay, there is 51 times this entire year that the Aussie dollar stopped moving, 51 times, 51 hours out of how many trading hours, so when people say the market is not moving, I can tell you exactly how much it is moving, and I like those trades. Sometimes they go on forever but

Shonn Campbell: In the probability system, the more consistent you can make a candle and the more consistent you can find of a session or a range, the better you can do. When it is exploding, all you can do is put back to divert, divert back to the mean.

Matt LaCoco: You know, I wish somebody would have pointed this crap out to me a few years ago, this probability stuff, because how much easier would everything have been because, really, it is just a way that enforces trading’s best practices. It really does.

Shonn Campbell: Yep, exactly.

Matt LaCoco: It really does. If you are playing strictly probabilities, then you are making the same decisions in the same situations. Every time situation A comes up, you make decision A using method A every single time, even if you don’t recognize it, even if this situation A looks a little bit different than the last situation A because you are not looking at it in terms of the butterfly formation, whatever the hell, whatever origami we are doing at the time. It really allows you to make a consistency in decision making. Even if your trading system sucks and earns 1% of the time, make every decision the same way every time, you are going to get the same results every time, or close enough to every time. 

NEXT PAGE: Reviewing Your Trades

|pagebreak|

Shonn Campbell: Yeah, but there is no, like you were saying earlier, no big spike candle and a moving average cross. 

Matt LaCoco: Stuff to skew your perception.

Shonn Campbell: Yeah, exactly. That moving average cross on a big spike that pulls back and the average doesn’t actually cross, all of the mess that goes along with that is gone. It is gone. Did five candles happen? If they did, this is how you work with it. 

Matt LaCoco: That’s right. Five candles are always going to happen. There is always something to work with, right.

Shonn Campbell: Exactly. 

Matt LaCoco: This is awesome and I can’t wait to now start doing a little bit more testing probabilities with things like stop losses. This is the ultimate way, I think. For me, this is going to end up the way that I trade with a robot.

Shonn Campbell: Okay, yeah.

Matt LaCoco: I like the idea of a robot but I never. It is one of those things when a robot takes a trade, I go look at it, and then it is over and done with because I have gotten involved now and I have screwed the frickin’ robot because the robot is going to use the probabilities and statistics that we ask it to and I am just, because of the way the chart looks or because of the speed with which this one-minute candle is moving, I get freaked out and X the trade or whatever.

Shonn Campbell: Yeah, exactly.

Matt LaCoco: This way, these are just numbers, these are just numbers.

Shonn Campbell: Yeah, just pure numbers.

Matt LaCoco: What happened to this candle? Get me in, time-based trades instead of level base trades. I don’t care how far it goes but probability is on my side in terms of the direction of the candle.

Shonn Campbell: Yes. Probability is on my side for this one-hour candle. I am going to let it do whatever it is going to do. It can stop me out or it can go as many pips as it wants to but this is where probability is on my side. After that, it decreases. Every candle after that, it decreases until a new probability setup happens but there are points where the odds are in your favor.

Matt LaCoco: Oh, absolutely.

Shonn Campbell: There are probably a million of them. I am probably just scratching the surface with what I am doing. 

Matt LaCoco: Oh yeah. Trust me, man, because I have got myself into trouble this week, and seriously trying to analyze some of this data because every time I have looked at something, it showed me something else as well. It showed me what I was looking for and then there is also this over here that you can use. Every time I would find one, I would find two or three more. I caught myself not actually making any progress because I was just making a list instead of a plan as to how I am going to exploit this one probability. I have found myself just making a list of these endless probabilities that I can leverage to make money with.

Shonn Campbell: Yeah, exactly, and that is all I am trying to do. I am trying to collect data right now and then I am going to mine it, what you said, mine it for what I can find in it. I may have to go and do more data collection. I don’t know but I want to see it. I want it to get into my subconscious and then I want to be able to find.

Matt LaCoco: Well, I am going to help you out with this data collection.

Shonn Campbell: I love it.

Matt LaCoco: I am writing some software right now that is doing this analysis for me. 

Shonn Campbell: I love it.

Matt LaCoco: I want it to be like Siri where I can just ask it a question.

Shonn Campbell: Just ask it. 

Matt LaCoco: Will I make money if I go long now? 

Shonn Campbell: Yes, Matt, you will. 

Matt LaCoco: Oh, I’ve got to show you this, man. So, I tried to ask Siri a question today regarding my probability of finding a parking space here downtown, and I understand the recorder can’t see this, but here is a picture of what Siri told me. Siri says, “I am really sorry about this but I can’t take any requests right now. Please try again in a while”. What, are you busy, Siri. Okay, so maybe there is something to this android thing.

Shonn Campbell: Maybe, maybe. 

Matt LaCoco: Just need to find the micro small screen version.

Shonn Campbell: Well, I can’t ask my phone questions but I can sure use it as a drive-in theater in my garage.

Matt LaCoco: That’s right, that’s right. How can you beat it.

Shonn Campbell: That’s right. 

For more podcasts from Rob Booker, visit Traderspodcast.com. You can also follow him on Twitter @traderspodcast.

Related Articles on TRADING