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Growth Guru Eyes China Retail
04/07/2015 10:00 am EST
Chinese stocks have been a tough sell for a while, as investors try to get a handle on what the country’s economy will be like with only 7% annual GDP growth, asserts Mike Cintolo, editor of Cabot Top Ten Report.
But the one sector that continues to find favor with investors is Chinese retail, especially online retail. JD.com (JD) is the largest e-commerce direct seller in China and that’s helping investors to conquer their nervousness.
In the third quarter of 2014, JD.com claimed 51.9% of the gross merchandise volume of Chinese online sales, one reason that Apple (AAPL) decided to pick JD.com as its main sales partner for the new Apple Watch.
JD.com’s P/E ratios are crazy high (364 trailing and 965 forward), but that’s because earnings are depressed by the firm's investments in distribution.
But the bottom line should soar from here. Estimates of 2015 earnings growth are at 167% and 2016 estimates are for 363% growth.
JD came public at $19 in May 2014 and the stock has never traded below that. We think a buy on a pullback toward $28 with a stop below $26 has a good risk/reward balance.
Vipshop Holdings (VIPS) is a Chinese online retailer with a distinctive strategy. The company offers stylish, name-brand merchandise at a discount via flash sales, which are offers of goods for a limited time or until they sell out.
Vipshop 's success has been phenomenal, with revenue growth cooling off to 122% in 2014. Vipshop turned profitable in Q3 2012 and has booked six consecutive quarters of earnings growth over 140%.
Even though Vipshop has a market cap over $18 billion and $1.4 billion in cash on hand, the company is still mentioned as a takeover target for larger Internet firms, which also keeps the company’s stock attractive.
VIPS was one of the strongest stocks in the entire market in 2013 and it continued its price advance from January 2014 (when it was trading at $8.5) to August 2014 (when it peaked at $23).
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