The headline risk here, folks, is that if you wait for your central banker to give you insight into ...
Lurching Toward a Grexit
05/24/2012 8:15 am EST
The Eurozone is still trying to fix the mess it’s in, and investors are getting caught up in the day-to-day drama. The best way to avoid the manic markets: as always, buy quality companies, writes Gemma Godfrey of The Investment Insight.
As the Eurozone crisis intensifies and global markets reflect investor concerns, we ask ourselves: Is a Greek exit from the euro on its way?
Crucially, preparations have already begun to protect shareholder interest, companies are robust, and policy in the US and China aims to maintain the upward momentum. To protect capital, proactively positioning portfolios has been key. International exposure and dividend yields offer attractive opportunities..
A ‘Grexit’ On Its Way?
All eyes once again are focused on Greece. An inability to form a government has led to a renewed fear that the country could exit the euro and the wider European Union.
Although only a small contributor to European economic output as a whole, contagion is the real risk. Concerns of further losses for external holders of Greek debt and a more widespread break-up of the euro have driven equity-market weakness.
In this self-perpetuating situation, investors are demanding more to lend to the likes of Spain and Portugal, driving their debt burdens to unsustainable levels. Furthermore, disappointing data from the US and China over the last few days have further added to the uncertainty.
Preparations Are Underway
However, preparations have already begun to protect shareholder interest. German and French banks, which were the largest holders of Greek debt, have been aggressively reducing their positions. Some, for example, have cut periphery debt exposure by as much as half since 2010.
Banks in the UK have been making provisions since at least November, when the Financial Services Authority’s top regulator, Andrew Bailey, told banks: “We must not ignore the prospect of the disorderly departure of some countries from the Eurozone.”
On the corporate side, interesting anecdotes have highlighted the proactive nature of company management in the face of this turmoil. Last year, for example, Tui, one of Europe’s largest travel companies, was reported to have requested to reserve the right to pay in a new Greek currency should the country exit from the euro.
Corporate balance sheets are robust, holding more cash than long-term averages. Dividend yields, and the potential for merger and acquisition activity once the macro outlook starts to improve, can offer an attractive upside.
Finally, although wavering slightly, the US has successfully avoided falling back into recession. Keenly aware of both external and internal risks to growth, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke has made it clear he is not afraid to utilize further tools to protect economic growth.
Especially with an election this year, policy is likely to remain accommodative. With respect to emerging markets, despite the recent wobble and an inevitable cooling of economic growth, with an estimated 1 billion of the population to join the consumer class by 2030, the long-term case remains strong.
Proactive Portfolio Positioning Prudent
To protect capital, proactively positioning portfolios has been key.
Reducing direct European exposure as Europe’s southern members showed severe signs of economic stress from an asset allocation perspective and via underlying fund managers has proved prudent. Fund managers have been able to maintain a zero weighting to Greece and a substantial underweight to the likes of Portugal and Spain relative to benchmark.
As equity markets reached new highs in the first quarter of this year, the substantial rally in share prices in the face of continued structural problems within the Eurozone, was a sign that the risk of a downward correction had increased in the short term. Caution was of course well-founded. A move to lock-in profits and redeploy capital to alternatives and property for a more attractive risk/return potential and hedge against inflation has been supported.
Assets which will help portfolio performance during these volatile market times are good quality companies with strong balance sheets paying an attractive level of dividends. Furthermore, in times of slow economic growth and persistent inflation, strong franchises with pricing power for protected market share and the ability to pass on increases in supply costs to the customer are very desirable attributes.
Looking forward, a resolution of key issues in Europe is required to gain confidence to add to equity exposure. Structural reform, greater fiscal consolidation, a focus on growth, and long-term support are required for stability in the region.
At the same time, with a medium- to long-term time horizon, it is more important to focus on the geographical location of a company’s revenue streams than where it is headquartered. Investor overreaction can offer buying opportunities with share price corrections providing attractive, cheaper entry points to high quality firms.
Furthermore, the yield from dividends these companies pay out can provide a valuable income stream. With many investors holding back capital, the flow of money back into markets, buying into sell-offs at lower levels, could dampen these downward moves and provide a level of support.
Therefore, although volatility could continue and market direction remains difficult to determine, it is possible to navigate the turmoil.
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