Bullish Bets from the Aden Forecast

05/27/2015 9:00 am EST


Mary Anne & Pamela Aden

Co-Editors, The Aden Forecast

Despite the fact that stocks have been in a steady uptrend, investors are still generally nervous and insecure, notes Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, editors of The Aden Forecast.

Many investors and market observers are puzzled. They’re quick to point out that this bull market rise has already lasted too long. In fact, it’s been the second longest in history.

Others say it’s overvalued. Some are calling for a steep bear market decline any time because the underlying economic foundation is unhealthy, manipulated, or take your pick. Some say to "Sell in May." We say, "No way."

Meanwhile, the stock market keeps plugging along. And now the global stock markets have joined the party too. That’s especially true of the European stock markets, thanks to their QE monetary stimulus, which is already producing some better economic results.

Hong Kong is looking very good too. For the most part, that’s due to the speculative upmove in the Chinese stock market. It’s created a frenzy with millions of Chinese pouring into their stock market. This actually has the making of a bubble, but not yet.

With more of the global stock markets joining the bullish parade, it bodes well for all stocks and the global economy.

We own iShares Hong Kong (EWH) and iShares Singapore (EWS) in our model portfolio. Other global positions include the S&P Global Technology ETF (IXN) and the Global 100 ETF (IOO).

Meanwhile, some emerging markets have been lagging, but these laggards will likely be moving up soon. Russia, for instance, is particularly bombed out and undervalued. For bargain hunters who want to take a flyer, Russia is probably one of the best speculative markets around.

We know we must sound like a broken record, repeating the same thing month after month. But putting all the noise aside, this bull market is solid and it is set to rise further.

The main reason is still the overall super low interest rates. They have fueled this bull market, and with the economy barely hanging on, we don’t see how interest rates can head significantly higher.

On the contrary, interest rates are signaling a green light for stocks, and the same is true for real estate, in spite of the past month’s rise.

Remember, interest rates are near zero and they’ve been this low for years. This is unprecedented, which is why this rise in stocks is probably going to be unprecedented too.

Sure it’s going to end one of these days, but we don’t see that happening as long as interest rates stay in a major downtrend.

Meanwhile, many investors have asked us how to earn some income in this near zero interest rate world. Well, we’ve done a lot of checking, and when you factor in risk, there aren’t a lot of options.

As you know, we’ve been recommending bonds and they’ve done well, but the interest bonds pay is minimal. This month, however, we came across two stocks that look attractive, recommended by Carla Pasternak of Income Investor and Richard Moroney, courtesy of Dow Theory Letters.

We advise buying Starwood Property (STWD) and Apollo Commercial (ARI), which are good income producers. These commercial mortgage REITS are trading near book value, they’re in strong uptrends, and they offer impressive dividend yields.

We recommend buying these two stocks if you want to collect some attractive income. ARI invests in commercial real estate debt in the US and it yields near 10%. STWD is the largest commercial mortgage REIT, investing in real estate debt in North and South America and Europe. It yields about 8%.

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