Gold Is Ready to Resume Its Rise

07/16/2007 12:00 am EST

Focus:

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden

Co-Editors, The Aden Forecast

Pamela and Mary Anne Aden, editors of the Aden Forecast, say gold may be poised to break out of its trading range and move to new highs.

Oil above $70 is once again a reality, and this magic number instills inflation fears, which in turn gives support to gold. 

Gold has stayed above $640, which was an important support level. And gold's now starting a renewed rise. Many gold and silver investors have been watching other commodities tear ahead, yet gold and silver haven't reached a new high for over a year now. 

Global demand and inflation are certainly valid reasons why gold and silver will continue to rise in the years ahead. Rising energy and commodities means higher prices for gas, food and housing, and that'll be good for gold.

Last month, rising interest rates pushed gold down. Rising rates, as the theory goes, make the dollar more attractive instead of holding gold or the precious metals because they pay no interest. Rates are poised to follow gold and all of the commodity arena upward in the coming years, just like in the 1970s.

In the meantime, gold's bull market is 6 ? years old and this has caused many to think that gold should have a decent correction this year. Who would've thought in May 2006 when gold shot up to $722 that a year later gold would have trouble getting near the $700 level?

From its May 2006 peak, gold fell for several months until it reached a low last October. This was the low at $562, and gold has been rising since then, for nine months now

As long as gold stays above $640, the higher highs will stay in force and gold will also be staying above its 65-week moving average. This average is the key up trend in the bull market. So, while you could say gold looks toppy, you could also say it has a solid base.

With gold shares starting to pop up, oil on a tear, copper looking good, and silver starting to look better than gold, gold could now be embarking on a [major] rise. If gold stays above $640 and closes above $670, a rise will clearly be under way. Gold could then test $696, the April high, and once that's broken, $722 will be the next stop.

Above $722 would mean a strong rise and a strong bull market are under way. The HUI gold share index has essentially been a sideways market for over a year. But it looks like gold shares are now ready to follow this year's rise in natural resource and energy stocks.

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