Yen Carry Trade Could Lift Stocks Again

08/06/2007 12:00 am EST


Chris Burba, Standard & Poor's Short-Term Technical Strategist, says the relationship between the yen and the dollar could offer hints about the market's future direction.

Prospects for a resumption of the yen-based carry trade could help boost equities in the coming weeks, putting the up trend from March lows in the major indexes back on course after recent pullbacks.

The carry trade involves borrowing a currency at a lower interest rate and exchanging it for another currency in order to invest in markets that offer higher return potential. For example, yen can be borrowed at a comparatively low interest rate and exchanged to buy government bonds in New Zealand, where the base rate is attractive at 8.25%.

Since early 2005, the dollar/yen has advanced (translating to a weakening yen) on a path that pretty closely matches the rally in the Standard & Poor's 500 index. As long as the yen continues to weaken and borrowing costs are stable, the amount required to pay back loans eventually becomes cheap.

The last near-term correction in US stocks started on February 27. The drop was sparked by a big sell-off in China due to news of tighter trading regulations. But the decline was likely exacerbated by an unwinding of carry trades. The dollar/yen sank sharply on that day, which suggested institutions sold stocks and other assets around the world, and bought yen in order to repay the loans taken out to initiate carry trades.

Now, move forward to March 5. The dollar/yen established a bottom on that day and began an advance that lasted into late June. The S&P 500 formed a bottom on the same day that eventually ushered in a rally through mid-July.

Since June 22, the dollar/yen has fallen from a high of 124.13 to a low of [under 118]. Based on past price behavior, 120 represents a level of perceived value-a natural place to sell yen for US dollars. It is also pretty close to a 50% retracement of the advance from March to June. It is common for the price to resume an up trend after retracing 50% of the most recent up leg.

This near-term decline should be placed into the context of the long-term up trend from the start of 2005. There is no technical evidence to indicate this long-term up trend from the start of 2005 has been exhausted. An upturn in the dollar/yen after testing 120 could generate increased interest in carry trades, thus contributing to up side in US stocks. Essentially, borrowing yen at a higher value compared with a month ago and selling it in order to invest elsewhere becomes an attractive scenario.

Watch the dollar/yen in the coming days or weeks to see if technical support around 120 holds. If this level does hold and the currency pair turns up, start looking for signs of investment capital moving back into US equities. The up trend in the S&P 500 since March should stay sound unless technical support at about 1484 is breached. (It closed at 1433 Friday-Editor.)

History, however, does not always repeat itself.

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