Naysayers. In the beginning of the year, they are out in full force. They are the people telling you...
So far this looks like profit taking to me
05/23/2013 1:04 pm EST
I’ve seen headlines this morning saying just that. But to me this looks like profit taking on a huge run up in global markets. So far, no more and no less even in Japan.
Here’s the background: At its high yesterday, May 22, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 10% from its low on April 18; the Nikkei 225 was up 21% from its April 18 low; the NASDAQ Composite was up 12% from its April 18 low.
The phrase “Too far, too fast” comes to mind.
The Tokyo market did indeed see a flash crash in the market for Japanese government bonds. Trading was halted after the 10-year bond fell one point and the yield climbed 10 basis points to more than—hold your breath—1%. The big fear here is that a significant increase in interest rates on government debt will put an end to the Abe government’s drive to weaken the yen through massive purchases of assets by the Bank of Japan. I didn’t see much timidity from the new team running Japan’s central bank overnight: The bank moved to calm the markets by injecting 2 trillion yen.
The yen has moved big today, gaining 1.28% against the dollar. Again some context. This essentially reverses the yen’s drop against the dollar to resistance at 103.50 to the dollar over the last few days. The yen now sits at 101.93.
The Nikkei 225 index closed down 7.3% with banks and real estate developers taking the worst of the damage.
The U.S. indexes have bounced back from their lows of the morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, down as much as 126.94 points was actually up 3.94 points as of 12:30 p.m. New York time. The Standard & Poor’s 500, down by as much as 1.2%, has climbed until it is just 0.19% in the red.
The fundamental news this today has been mixed in a way that has been typical lately. The U.S. economy continues to report strength—initial claims for unemployment came in at 340,000 when economists had projected 348,000 and new home sales were reported at 454,000 when 425,000 had been expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com. The Chinese economy continues to show worryingly slower than expected growth. The preliminary flash purchasing managers index from HSBC Holdings and Markit Economics fell to 49.6. That was below the 50.4 expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. On this index any reading below 50 indicates that the economy is contracting. Stock markets across Asia fell on the news from China. The Shanghai Composite index closed down 1.13% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 2.54%.
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