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Asian stocks beat U.S. equities on dividends? Who knew?
04/13/2010 9:00 am EST
If you think anything like I did just a scant few months ago, you wouldn’t dream of looking to Asian stocks for high dividend yields. Most likely, you think of them like I did, as resembling the technology sector: Lots of growth but no yield.
Well, I was wrong and if you think like that you’re missing an increasingly important source of high dividend yields. (By the way, technology stocks pay dividends too these days. Check out Intel (INTC) to see what I mean.)
Here’s the data from the Matthews Asia Dividend fund (MAPIX) that opened my eyes. “Based on consensus estimates, the projected dividend yield for 2010 of the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index of 2.5% exceeds the 2.0% expected of the MSCI U.S. Index,” the fund’s managers wrote in their December 31, 2009 report. In other words Asian stocks out-yield their U.S. counterparts.
And the Asian yield story looks like it’s got a way to run. In China, for example, total dividend payments grew to $73 billion in 2008 from just $8 billion in 1998, according to the December 31 report from another Matthews fund, the Matthews China Dividend Fund (MCDFX). And $57 billion of the $73 billion in dividends paid out in 2008 came from companies that went public after 1998. Even recently public companies in China, it seems from the data, are paying good dividends.
Why haven’t dividend investors stocked up on these higher Asia yields? (In the process driving yields down, of course.)
Couple of reasons, I think.
First, investors are fixated on China and other Asian economies as growth stories. We’re focused on buying growth of 20%, 30%, 40% or more a year. Who’s even looking at dividends?
Second, it’s just awfully hard to figure out many of these dividend stories. Information on the companies is hard to get; the corporate structures are often so convoluted that it’s difficult to tell what the information you can get means; and Asian companies often pay out dividends on schedules and in formats that seem very well, foreign, to developed market investors who are used to regular and regularly announced quarterly dividend payments.
There’s good reason that the Matthews Asia Funds have launched Asia (2006) and China (2009) dividend funds recently. A professional manager with the ability to buy and sell on local markets effectively closed to individual investors more than earns his keep in this part of the global stock market.
But that doesn’t mean you can’t add some Asian dividend stocks to your income portfolio—either instead of buying a mutual fund or in addition to owning fund shares as a way to overweight a particular Asian country or sector in your dividend portfolio.
As I wrote in my Friday April 9 post, http://jubakpicks.com/2010/04/09/taking-the-hybt-for-bigger-dividends-beyond-the-usual-suspects/ , it’s getting harder and harder to find a stock that pays a decent dividend. At least if you look in the usual places. So look in the un-usual places. Every one of them.
In today’s post I’m going to tell you about three Asian dividend stocks. Two of them are intriguing but ultimately frustrating examples of why it’s so hard to figure out what to buy in this sector. The third, I think, is just transparent enough to add to Jim’s Watch List. I think the global equity markets are swinging back from hope to fear and that we’ll get a chance to add this stock to one of my portfolios at a lower price not too many weeks down the road.
My first Asian dividend stock is Singapore’s Keppel Corporation Limited (KPELY.PK). The company’s biggest business is building offshore oil rigs. So far in 2010 the company has announced $1.65 billion in orders that include a wellhead platform for Brazilian oil company Petrobras (PBR) and a jackup rig for Saudi Aramco.
Keppel’s infrastructure and property segments will account for about 26% and 14% of revenue, respectively, in 2010, according to OCBC Investment Research. Keppel’s infrastructure business includes a fast-growing cooling systems business with contracts in China, the Middle East and the United Kingdom. A wholly-owned subsidiary Keppel Integrated Engineering is targeting what it calls the green infrastructure business with assets that include two waste to energy incinerator plants and a water processing plant.
And then there’s the property business. The company is building a development called Reflections at Keppel Bay and another called Resorts World at Sentosa. And then there’s the Marina Bay Financial Center project that’s just nearing completion of Phase 1.
All this is complex enough but things really get too complicated for me when it comes to dividend time. In 2008, according to the Matthews Asia Funds, Keppel was among the most generous payers of dividends in Singapore paying out paying out $385 million in dividends. The company hadn’t yet set a dividend payout for 2009 when it announced this wrinkle: The company’s Keppel Integrated Engineer subsidiary is contributing much of its environment assets to a trust called K-Green Trust that will list in Singapore. The company will pay a “dividend in specie” of approximately 50.5% of the total number of trust units held directly by Keppel. This dividend will be distributed to shareholders.
Any idea what that dividend is worth? I’d love to be able to figure it out but from here I can’t tell. And it’s hard for me to recommend a dividend stock when I can’t tell what the dividend is. (I’ll keep working on it, though.)
On to example two, Minth Group (MNTHF.PK.) The company manufactures and supplies trim and decorative parts to domestic and international auto companies building cars in China. China is now the largest auto market in the world and demand will grow by 15% a year over the next three years, according to Citic Securities. In this growing market Minth shows net profit margins of 20%. The company pays a dividend yield of 2.3% and should be able to up that without showing any strain.
Oh, and did I mention that while the average auto stock traded in Hong Kong trades at a PE to Growth rate (PEG) ratio of 1.6, Minth Group trades at a PEG ratio of just 0.9? (Growth investors commonly call any growth stock with a PEG ratio of 1 or less reasonably priced.)
So why not snap up the shares—if not for the Dividend Income Portfolio then for Jubak’s Picks?
Well, in Hong Kong Minth is a very liquid stock trading 105 million shares on average daily. In the United States it’s an OTC stock priced at just $1.70 a share. And volume—it doesn’t even show up on MSN Money or Yahoo Finance. Not exactly the kind of liquidity that makes me feel like I’d be able to sell if I needed to. And I’d sure be sorry about the volatility of the shares if someone else decided to sell.
And example three? Jiangsu Expressway Company (JEXYY.PK) isn’t exactly liquid but at least it does trade in the United States as a sponsored ADR (meaning a bank is committed, however strongly or weakly, to making a market in the shares). Daily average volume is just 1,467. But at least the stock’s volume does register. And at $18.87 a share it’s not exactly a penny stock.
The company is certainly easier to understand than Keppel and the business model is a familiar one to developed market investors.
The company builds, buys and operates toll bridges and toll roads in China including a section of the Shanghai- Nanjing Expressway and other toll highways within Jiangsu Province. (It also develops highway-related services such as repair shops, gas stations, motels and restaurants.
Earnings grew by 29% in 2009 and will grow by 12% annually through 2011, according to projections by DBS Group. Revenue climbed by 9% in 2009, according to Daiwa Capital Markets. The stock pays a dividend of 6%.
So why put it on my watch list instead of buying it now?
First, the stock is generating what is a rash of short-term enthusiasm because of May’s big Shanghai trade expo. The feeling is that the event will generate lots of traffic that will turn into toll revenue for Jiangsu Expressway. I hate to buy into this kind of short-term thinking—and the elevated price that goes with it. There’s almost always a reaction that sends the stock price down after the event is over.
Second, the company has started to move into the property market. I think that exposes the stock to a price shock if the Beijing government moves to rein in the money supply to control growth and inflation. I think that’s likely over the next two to three months.
In short I’d like to own this one once some of the short-term risk is out of the stock price. Right now, I’m adding it to my watch list.
Full disclosure: I don’t own shares of any company or fund mentioned in this post.
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