We are still on guard for corrective (even fairly volatile) declines in the weeks and months ahead, ...
Job losses are as bad as expected--and so already discounted by the stock market
07/02/2010 11:55 am EST
Payrolls fell by 125,000 in June. That was the first monthly decline this year and slightly worse than the 100,000 drop expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com
Most of the decline, as expected, came from an end to temporary jobs for 225,000 workers conducting surveys for the 2010 census. (Overall government and private sector temporary employment rose by 20,500. That’s at least moving in the right direction since temporary jobs numbers increase before companies hire workers for permanent jobs—in most recoveries.)
Employment at private companies rose by 83,000 in June. That’s an extremely tepid increase. Revised data for May, released today, show that the economy added a net 110,000 private sector jobs that month.
Despite the bad news on overall employment, the official unemployment rate fell to 9.5% from 9.7% in May as discouraged workers stopped looking for work and left the officially-defined workforce. The total unemployment rate, which counts discouraged workers and workers with temporary jobs but who would like permanent jobs, fell to 16.5% in June from 16.6%.
So how are we doing in creating jobs in this recovery?
At June’s rate of 83,000 net jobs added in the private sector, it would take 100 months—or 8.3 years—to recover the 8 million jobs lost by the U.S. economy during the recession that began in December 2007. (For more on our jobs crisis see my post http://jubakpicks.com/2010/06/29/weve-got-a-jobs-creation-crisis-and-so-far-the-u-s-is-ignoring-it/ )
June’s end to 225,000 temporary census jobs leaves 339,000 temporary workers still on the job collecting census data. Those jobs will be ending in the next few months—with the biggest drop likely in July. That will make the top line employment data depressing reading for a few more months no matter what the private economy is doing.
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