A couple of weeks ago I had an extended exchange with a friend of mine who is an oil man in Oklahoma...
Goldman reverses its call--now it's " Buy commodities"
05/09/2011 10:30 am EST
Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street giant, that predicted a sell-off in commodities—and certainly thereby with that call contributed to creating the sell-off last week that it had predicted—is now predicting a recovery.
Last week’s rout drove the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities down 11% in five days,
In a May 6 interview with Bloomberg Jeffrey Currie, the head of commodity research said, “Given the magnitude of the pullback, it does create an opportunity for more upside potential, particularly in the second half of this year, when fundamentals are expected to tighten.” A month ago Currie advised investors (and I use the term very loosely here) to go underweight commodities.
The last time the S&P GSCI fell this much, it rebounded 12% in the following week.
Last week all anyone on Wall Street could say was “Global demand is falling. Look at slowing growth in China, India, and Brazil.” This week the mantra is, at least so far (it is only Monday), “Global demand is rising and producers can’t keep up. Look at the growth in China, India, and Brazil.”
Next time you hear a call, bullish or bearish, from one of the big Wall Street trading companies, remember that they make their money on volatility. Up, down, up, down—and then count the trading commissions. (And the trading profits too if a trader or two at your company bet the company’s own money on the call the company was about to make. Not that any Wall Street investment house would ever put its own trading profits ahead of the interests of its clients. I’d never suggest that.)
My advice remains the same—if you want to know where commodities (and commodity stocks) are going in the short-term, watch the U.S. dollar and the euro. Troubles in the euro (Greece and a delay in when the European Central Bank will next raise interest rates) lead the dollar to rally and that’s bad for commodities.
In the long-run, of course, I think you’re safe betting on a falling dollar (and rising commodity prices.)
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