Sell Johnson Controls as a source of cash for emerging market opportunities

06/17/2013 5:11 pm EST

Focus: STOCKS

Jim Jubak

Founder and Editor, JubakPicks.com

I’m selling Johnson Controls (JCI) out of my Jubak’s Picks portfolio http://jubakpicks.com/ to raise cash in the current market because 1) I think I can do better than the 12.9% return to my target price, and 2) because I think the uncertainty in that target has gotten higher recently. Getting to my $42.40 target price was contingent on fairly decent second half 2013 auto sales from European automakers—that looks less likely with the most optimistic projections now putting off economic growth in the EuroZone into 2014—and a pick up in orders in the company’s building energy unit. That too seems less likely as interest rates start to tick up creating a drag on commercial construction. I don’t think that either of these doubts rises to the level of major headwind, but I think the sell off in emerging markets will give me a better opportunity to put cash to work sometime in the next three to six months. In other words, at the moment I think Johnson Controls is a good source of cash. For more on this logic, see my post http://jubakpicks.com/2013/06/14/what-stock-picks-to-sell-to-raise-cash-for-an-emerging-markets-rally/ )  I have a 48.97% gain in this position since I added to the portfolio in September 2009.

Full disclosure: I don’t own shares of any of the companies mentioned in this post in my personal portfolio. When in 2010 I started the mutual fund I manage, Jubak Global Equity Fund http://jubakfund.com/, I liquidated all my individual stock holdings and put the money into the fund. The fund did own shares of Johnson Controls as of the end of March. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of March see the fund’s portfolio at http://jubakfund.com/about-the-fund/holdings/

 

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