There’s a 30% chance that the strong trend resumption will continue above January’s high...
Buy Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
04/08/2010 1:17 pm EST
After a rally off the February 8 low on hopes that the global economic recovery was gaining steam, I think we’re due for a swing back to fear on disappointing growth numbers from the European Union, on stubbornly high (and perhaps rising) unemployment figures from the United States as more discouraged workers rejoin the ranks of those actively looking for work, and on worrying growth and inflation data from China. ((For more on these macro trends see my posts http://jubakpicks.com/2010/03/26/coming-to-a-wal-mart-near-you-inflation-from-china/ , http://jubakpicks.com/2010/04/08/the-greek-crisis-goes-on-and-on-an-on-with-no-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel/ , and http://jubakpicks.com/2010/04/05/so-yes-weve-got-an-economic-recovery-but-how-strong-is-still-an-open-question/ )
The technical charts of many individual gold stocks and the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) now show that gold mining shares have clear recent resistance and look like they’re headed higher—for a while anyway. I’ve noted a number of times recently that in a market where trends don’t last all that long, investors don’t want to fall in love with any stock. An ETF, since it’s just a vehicle that tracks an index, is somehow less lovable. Which is why I’m picking it here over any individual gold stock. This ETF also holds shares of some silver miners and silver (as well as platinum) right now is outpacing gold so this pick gives me a way to gain a little extra lift.
I’m setting a very tight target price of $52 and a very short time horizon of August for this pick. If and when the ETF hits that target, I’ll re-evaluate.
Full disclosure: I don't own shares of any stock or ETF mentioned in this post.
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