What Shale Oil Slowdown? Railcar Maker Greenbrier Blows Out Earnings Estimates

04/07/2015 5:34 pm EST


Jim Jubak

Founder and Editor, JubakPicks.com

This railcar maker delivered not just good as projected results in Tuesday’s earnings report but better than good by a sizable margin, so MoneyShow's Jim Jubak is raising his target price as of April 7.

Going into today’s earnings report—scheduled for before the New York market open—I was worried that results from Greenbrier Companies (GBX) would be good but not better enough than projections to keep momentum going. After all, the shares at $60.60 were way above the $43.06 December low. Watch out, I thought, for some possible selling on the good news reaction.

Well, no selling today because railcar maker Greenbrier delivered not just good as projected results, but better than good by a sizeable margin. The stock closed up 3.02% today to $62.43. I’m keeping the shares in my Jubak’s Picks portfolio and raising the target price to $84 from the current $81. The shares are off 0.46% since I added them to the portfolio on November 17, 2014.

Earnings per share for the second quarter of the company’s fiscal year (which ended in February) came in at $1.57, 37 cents a share above the Wall Street consensus. Revenue climbed 27.3% from the February 2015 quarter. Deliveries in the quarter rose to 5,200 from 4,000 railcars in the quarter that ended in November. Backlog climbed to 46,000 railcars from 41,200 in November.

Two things I especially liked about the quarter: First, gross margin expanded to 19.9%, up from 17.8% in the November period and just a bit below the company’s goal of 20% for 2016; second, Greenbrier raised its guidance for fiscal 2015 to earnings of $5.65 to $5.95 a share (up from prior guidance of $5.20 to $5.50 a share) on $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion in revenue (up from $2.6 billion to $2.62 billion). The company also raised its forecast for railcar deliveries for fiscal 2015 to 21,500 units, up from prior guidance of 21,500 railcars.

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