The December retail sales report was a disaster, notes Landon Whaley, who recommends shorting the SP...
Buy Boeing (BA)
09/30/2010 12:47 pm EST
That’s set up an opportunity to buy this stock for the eventual good news about its product cycle while getting paid a yield of 2.55%, just below the 2.65% yield on a 10-year Treasury, as you wait for that cycle to arrive.
Boeing’s shares are down 5.4% as of September 29 from their price on August 2.
You don’t have to look very hard for a reason for the drop: Another set back for Boeing’s oft-delayed 787 Dreamliner. On August 27 the company announced that it would push back the delivery of its first 787 to the first quarter of 2011 from the fourth quarter of 2010 because of little problem with the Trent 1000 Rolls-Royce engine that is to power the 50% carbon fiber composite plane. (A Trent 1000 blew up in testing causing the closing of the test facility.) At the time of Boeing’s announcement the 787 was already two years behind schedule.
Often when a product slips that badly, competitors take advantage and bring out products that leapfrog the delayed product, making its late introduction fatal. That hasn’t happened to Boeing in this case, however, because its competitor in the current duopoly for long-range commercial jet airliners, Airbus, is projecting its new A350, the competitor to the 787, to go into service in 2013. That target may be as liable to slippage as Boeing’s because the first A350 isn’t scheduled to roll off the assembly line until 2011.
Whenever the 787 arrives, it will meet a huge order book because the plane promises a 15% reduction in fuel costs because of its high carbon-fiber content. Boeing has 877 orders for the plane at $150 million to $206 million per plane.
While the company is waiting for Godot, it’s been happily accelerating its production of the workhorse, single-aisle 737. The most recent increase, and it’s the fourth increase since the end of the recession, would increase production to 38 a month in 2013 from 35 a month in 2012 from the current 31.5 current rate of production.
All this could well make 2011 very profitable for Boeing but turn the second half of 2010 into a kind of lost two quarters for the company.
Standard & Poor’s forecasts that the company will show negative cash flow in 2010 as it continues to gear up for the 787 but doesn’t take in any revenue. The analysts at S&P see earnings per share dropping sequentially in the third quarter of 2010 from the second quarter before rebounding in the fourth quarter to finish even with second quarter 2010 earnings.
I think the upside on these shares is about $82 in a year—but that target price is certainly subject to delay. And that’s why the current 2.55% yield is so important. If the price appreciation on the shares is delayed by yet more production problems, you’ll still collect that yield while you wait. I’d like to get a yield of at least 2.5% while I wait so I’d like to buy these shares at $67.20 or less.
I’m adding these shares to Jubak’s Picks as of September 30 with a target price of $83 a share by September 2011.
Full disclosure: I don’t own shares of any company mentioned in this post in my personal portfolio.
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