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Sell Middleby (MIDD)
11/04/2010 3:30 pm EST
Nothing unusual about these shares. And that’s exactly the point. At this stage of the rally I’d like to keep close watch on valuations and sell individual stocks when a specific price seems to be getting out of line. I’d rather leave a few dollars on the table now than risk a major loss.
So how do you tell if a stock is a sell now rather than a rocket with more gains ahead? I’d suggest taking a look at historical valuations.
Middleby beat Wall Street estimates by 8 cents a share when it reported earnings for the second quarter on August 11. Revenue climbed 9.3% from the second quarter of 2009.
The stock then took off with the rest of the market in late August. From a low of $53.28 on August 24 shares climbed to $76.83 as of the close on November 2 for a gain of 44%. Shares fell almost 4% on November 3.
That rally drove the stock’s price to earnings ratio of 21.1 times trailing 12-month earnings per share and 17.2 times projected earnings. That compares with a five-year high price to earnings ratio of 29 and a five-year low of 6.
The Wall Street consensus projects 8.6% earnings growth for 2010 and 14.8% earnings growth for 2011.
All this suggests that on historical comparisons Middleby is expensive now. And that at this price you’re betting that the Fed’s $600 billion program of quantitative easing is going to work to increase growth in the economy. (For more on the global market reaction to the Fed’s move, see my post http://jubakpicks.com/2010/11/04/everybody-loves-bens-600-billion-at-least-in-the-short-term/ )
I’d like to buy the shares back at something like 14.8 times projected 2010 earnings of $3.74 a share or about $55 a share. (That’s a multiple equal to the stock’s projected 2011 growth rate.)
So as of November 3, 2010, I’m selling Middleby out of Jubak’s Picks with a gain of 29.7% since I added it to the portfolio on May 20, 2008.
Full disclosure: I don’t own shares of any of the companies mentioned in this post in my personal portfolio. The mutual fund I manage, Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX), may or may not now own positions in any stock mentioned in this post. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of the most recent quarter, see the fund’s portfolio at http://jubakfund.com/about-the-fund/holdings/
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