Sell Energy Transfer Partners (ETP)

09/16/2011 4:01 pm EST

Focus: STOCKS

Jim Jubak

Founder and Editor, JubakPicks.com

I think you can do better.

Yes, Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) pays a current yield of 8.2%. But with a master limited partnership like this what I want to see is the potential for solid increases in cash distributions over time. And on that front Energy Transfer Partners looks like a laggard.

I’m selling this master limited partnership out of Jubak’s Picks http://jubakpicks.com/ as of today.

Standard & Poor’s, which gives this stock a buy rating, forecasts that cash distributions will climb just 1.7% in 2011. That trails S&P’s forecast of 7.1% growth in cash distributions for Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP), for example. In the realm of growth in real cash, and not in projected cash, Energy Transfer Partners showed no increase in distribution in the second quarter of 2011 versus a 7.2% increase from Magellan Midstream Partners and a 4.5% increase for ONEOK Partners (OKS). (Energy Transfer Partners is a member of my Jubak’s Picks portfolio; Magellan Midstream and ONEOK are members of my Dividend Income portfolio http://jubakpicks.com/ )

This doesn’t look like a short-term problem either. Barclays forecasts that the distribution increase at Energy Transfer Partners will grow at a 3.1% compounded annual rate from 2010-2015 compared to 5.1% for its peers among master limited partnerships.

What’s the problem? Actually it seems to be problems plural.

About 45% of revenue at Energy Transfer Partners comes from intrastate pipelines and that sector is growing more slowly than the interstate pipeline business. In addition the company’s cost of capital is about 2.5 percentage points higher than its peers. Master limited partnerships grow by borrowing money and then buying new assets with that cash—since the partnerships distribute almost all their earnings to unit holders and don’t have retained earnings to invest. That higher cost of capital puts Energy Transfer Partners at a growth disadvantage going forward.

The unit price has been in downtrend for much of 2011 and is now flat for the year. That trails the 20% to 30% price appreciation of ONEOK and Magellan Midstream. On a total return basis I think you’ll do better going forward with those other two master limited partnerships. Or take a look at one of the dividend stocks I wrote up in my post “Lemons into Lemonade” http://jubakpicks.com/2011/09/16/lemons-into-lemonade-high-yield-stocks-now-from-the-market-rout-for-tomorrows-retirement-portfolio/ on September 16.

Full disclosure: I don’t own shares or units of any of the companies or partnerships mentioned in this post in my personal portfolio. The mutual fund I manage, Jubak Global Equity Fund http://jubakfund.com/ , may or may not now own positions in any stock mentioned in this post.  The fund did not own units of any partnership mentioned in this post as of the end of June. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of June see the fund’s portfolio at http://jubakfund.com/about-the-fund/holdings/

 

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