Update Kinross Gold (KGC)

08/17/2009 10:30 am EST


Jim Jubak

Founder and Editor, JubakPicks.com

A good second quarter from Kinross Gold (KGC)--considering the uncertainties of the mining business where anything from an ore body running a lower grade than expected to floods to civil war can disrupt production.

Earnings of 12 cents a share for the second quarter were a penny below Wall Street projections but revenue climbed 100.2% from the second quarter of 2008. At $598 million revenue easily beat projections at $543 milion. Most importantly, despite a slowdown in getting the Paracatu mine expansion up to full production the company kept its production estimates at 2.3 million to 2.4 million ounces of gold for 2009.

 When I lpicked this stock in April, I noted that gold production was expected to hit 2.4 million ounces in 2009, a huge increase in production from the 1.5 million ounces produced in 2006. My preference at this point, when near-term inflation remains subduded thanks to a global economic slowdown, is for shares of gold miners (as long-term inflation hedges) that are increasing production (so investors get some growth while they wait for inflation to tick up.) Kinross fits that bill perfectly.

 As of August 17, I'm raising my target price on these shares to $24 a share from my earlier $21 a share target by December 2009. (Full disclosure: I own shares of Kinross Gold in my personal portfolio.
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