Update Joy Global (JOYG)

09/07/2010 3:10 pm EST


Jim Jubak

Founder and Editor, JubakPicks.com

Investors who bid up the price of construction machinery and mining equipment stocks in anticipation of Joy Global (JOYG) earnings announcement before the New York stock market opened on September 1 should be very happy with the company’s earnings report. (For more on the sector see my post http://jubakpicks.com/2010/08/31/if-the-economy-is-so-terrible-why-are-machinery-stocks-relatively-strong/ )

Joy Global announced July quarter (fiscal third quarter for the company) earnings per share of $1.13, 10 cents ahead of the Wall Street consensus. Revenue came in a little light at $850 million versus the analyst projection of $877 million

But the big deal was the company’s increased guidance for fiscal 2010, which since Joy Global’s fiscal year ends in October means a big bump in guidance for the fourth quarter of 2010. For the full fiscal year Joy Global now sees earnings per share of $4.10 to $4.15 a share. That’s above the $4.01 Wall street consensus. Revenue, the company projects, will be $3.35 billion to $3.4 billion. Earlier guidance was for $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion. The Wall Street consensus sees $3.41 billion.

And the results don’t look to be a one-quarter flash-in-the-pan. The company reported that order backlog climbed to $1.8 billion at the end of the quarter, up from $1.5 billion on October 30, 2009. (That was the end of the 2009 fiscal year.)

“Despite near term uncertainties, customer actions continue to be based on the long lead time for mine expansion projects. Mining capital budgets at the beginning of the year were expected to be up around 25% from 2009. More recently, a number of additional projects have been announced, and several customers have revised their capital budgets upward. It is now expected that capital spending this year will be up around 30% from 2009, and will be up by approximately another 10% in 2011, the company said.”

Joy Global is a member of my long-term Jubak Picks 50 Portfolio. If I trusted this market a little more (that is, if it weren't September) I'd add the stock to the 12-18 month Jubak's Picks. But after the pop in the share price, I'm going to wait for any pull back before adding it to the portfolio.

Full disclosure: I don't own shares of any company mentioned in this post in my personal portfolio.
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