Investing for 2030: 4 Key Forecasts
A report on 'Global Trends 2030' contains a raft of forecasts that investors can put to use. Here are some key predictions-and how to use them without getting burned, writes MoneyShow's Jim Jubak, also of Jubak's Picks.
What do you, as an investor, do with predictions? Even well-researched predictions by experienced "predictors," like those behind the recently published Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds?
And most challenging of all, what do you as an investor do with predictions about which countries will grow most rapidly?
I think the default response-put your money into the financial markets in the fastest-growing economies-is actually wrong. Or at the least, the idea that "GDP growth equals market returns" isn't true, and it presents a trap you want to avoid.
Some Critical Predictions
Let me use some of the predictions found in this recent report to explain why I believe that, and how to put such predictions to use.
- By 2030, China will be the world's leading economic power-with the US second.
- The world's oil producers-especially Russia-will see their influence wane, in part because the US will attain energy independence.
- For the first time in history-as far as we can know-a majority of the world's population won't be impoverished. But half of the world's population will live in areas with severe shortages of fresh water.
- At least 15 countries will be at risk of state failure by 2030-Pakistan, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Uganda among them.