Markets are relatively quiet for a change, with stocks, crude oil, gold and silver all flattish. The dollar is stable, but Treasury prices are lower.
Traders are still focused on...trade. The new concern: That store shelves could start looking a little empty soon. US retailers and wholesalers stocked up on imported goods ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcements, but those inventories are getting wound down. At the same time, inbound shipments and cargo sailings from China have plunged up to 60%.
Some orders will be re-routed to other suppliers in countries with lower tariff rates. But the “gumming up” of global supply chains could impact pricing and availability of goods on US store shelves for some time. Low-priced e-commerce company Shein Group Ltd. is already boosting US prices by anywhere from 30% to 377%, per Bloomberg.
SPY, AAPL, META, CAT (YTD % Return)
Data by YCharts
From an investor standpoint, what matters most is the pace and details of the trade dealmaking process. Trump Administration policymakers have hinted at deals with countries like Japan and India. But markets will likely need to see concrete progress in the next few weeks if they’re going to resume marching higher.
Meanwhile, we’re getting into the heart of Q1 earnings season this week. Magnificent Seven names like Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Meta Platforms Inc. (META) are set to report results, along with financials like Visa Inc. (V), industrials such as Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), and drug giants Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) and Amgen Inc. (AMGN).
On the economic front, we’ll get consumer confidence figures on Tuesday...income, spending, and PCE inflation data Wednesday...and the April monthly jobs report on Friday. Those figures come as the 10-year Treasury Note yield is hovering right in the middle of its recent 4%-4.5% trading range.
