A Bullish Look from Louis
06/13/2003 12:00 am EST
The "Wall of Worry" continues to be built, brick by brick. Deflation. Terrorism. Mideast turmoil. Corporate scandals. Deficits. A weak dollar. Rampant speculation in low priced and risky issues. People who have avoided stocks for the past few years are jumping back into stocks that have already jumped in price. When I look through the Digest archives I see an unending list of stocks that have doubled and tripled in price, and I have to wonder how much more upside there is before risks become too great. What does this all mean? Ironically, this may be just the time to buy.
I have been actively involved in the stock market for 22 years, and if I have learned anything it is that you cannot apply rational logic to stock forecasting. There are always reasons to be fearful of the market. Every bull market period occurs while investors discuss all the reasons to stay out of stocks. But one advisor who scoffs at this wall of worry and remains convinced that we face great times ahead is Louis Navellier . In fact, I can rarely recall such a notable advisor being so adamantly bullish.
Few can argue with Louis' record. According to The Hulbert Financial Digest, his MPT Review --his more aggressive newsletter which he started in the mid-1980s--has gained 2,286% in the last 18 years (beating the S&P 500's 739% gains 3-to-1). And since he started his Blue Chip Growth Letter --a more conservative newsletter--in late 1997, his portfolio has gained 31.6%--with 50% less risk than the Wilshire 5000--while the S&P 500 lost 2.9% in that time. Here's his bullish outlook:
"Get ready to blast off! We're truly entering a great era for investors. Day after day, money continues to pour back into the market. Growth stocks are rallying strongly in the wake of terrific earnings results. And every bit of good news pushes stocks higher. Not every day will be up, of course. But all my experience tells me, this new bull market will last two years--or more. You can participate and make out like a bandit. Or you can sit on the sidelines and miss out. The choice is yours. But I hope you'll get fully invested now. I can guarantee you'll be glad you did. In fact, I can honestly say that this is the best buying opportunity of my lifetime.
1. Many hot stocks continue to gap higher on order imbalances, as buyers overwhelm sellers. Growth stocks are the place to be. Earnings results have been MUCH better than expected.
2. That's why the smart money is turning from value to growth. If you think you're being safe and prudent sitting in value stocks, you're not.
3. The dividend tax relief virtually guarantees that money will continue to flow out of bonds (with interest taxed as high as 35%) into the stock market. There are dozens of companies, sitting on mountains of cash, that can easily pay dividends without hurting their cash flow. This will change the risk/reward outlook for many stocks.
4. The surprise capital gains tax cut will be another HUGE shot in the arm. A 15% tax-rate richly rewards investors for taking on a little added risk.
5. Of course, you still CAN'T rush out and buy any old stock. More accounting problems will surface. And as the indictment of Martha Stewart shows, there is more dirty laundry to be aired.
6. But all in all, things are looking up, up, up. Consumer confidence has soared since Operation Iraqi Freedom. Business spending has also come back. And if you're worried about deflation, don't be. The dollar is too weak for that. Greenspan just planted the idea as a way to get lower long-term interest rates without having to actually do anything himself.
7. Best of all, there is still a record amount of CASH on the sidelines--enough fuel to drive prices higher for the next two years and possibly longer.
8. Money market reserves remain at nearly 28% of the total stock market value. In 1982, reserves hit 22%, and an 18-year bull market followed. In 1991, reserves reached 17%, and the Dow nearly quadrupled over the next nine years!!! See why I'm urging you to be fully invested today? This is the watershed event of our investing lifetimes--one that can fully erase the pain of the last several years.
9. According to market valuation models, the stock market is some 48% UNDERvalued relative to the ten-year Treasury. And with bond yields so low, investors take huge risks by holding them. When interest rates surge again, the value of bonds will plummet. And worry of that happening is exceptionally bullish for stocks.
10. These valuation models DON'T even take into consideration the advantage that dividends (taxed at 15%) now hold over interest income. When I recalculate with that advantage taken into effect, it shows that stocks are really 62% UNDERvalued when compared to bonds!!!
"We've clearly passed the turning point for stock investors. These are just a few examples. Some stocks haven't taken off yet. They will. It's not too late to position yourself for what I truly believe will be the investing event of a lifetime. Stocks, in my professional opinion, have a long way to run. And I urge you to take full advantage. Indeed, i n all my 23 years as a professional investor, I've NEVER seen a rally this strong with so little risk. And if you're sitting on the sidelines--like many investors--you're making a very big mistake."