Marketocracy Targets Gold
12/27/2002 12:00 am EST
"There is a great deal of uncertainty in correctly valuing today’s market, according to our top 100 fund managers," says Ken Kam , who monitors the buying and selling activity of the m100--a group which represents the 100 top performing fund managers among the 60,000 members that operate virtual funds on the Marketocracy web site. Here's the outlook from the top performers.
"Currently the m100 group is 54% bearish and 46% bullish, looking 6-12 months out. Of the bulls, some agree with the bears that there will be disappointments ahead as the market continues to work out the excesses of the recent equity bubble. However, a large number from both camps expect that we are entering a sideways market where investors will have the opportunity to do well, as long as they learn to be very selective in their stock picks in a mixed market environment. Given the m100’s forecast for the coming year, it is important to develop a complementary investment strategy. For the m100, this strategy includes investing in gold and precious metals, to help weather the expected choppy market waters in 2003.
"The m100 currently weights gold and precious metals at roughly 25% of total portfolio value. The group has proven its ability to generate impressive returns within the sector, tallying a +41.5% gain so far this year vs. a -5.4% drop by the S&P Materials sector (as of 11/30/02). Right now, m100 members are placing the largest sector bets on Harmony Gold (HMY NYSE), Goldcorp (GG NYSE), and Glamis Gold (GLG NYSE). A third of the m100 group also says that it plans to increase its exposure to this sector leading into 2003, while another 44% say that they will continue to hold strong onto their current sector positions. Some of the larger recent buys have been Lihir Gold ADS (LIHRY NASDAQ) and Randgold & Exploration ADR (RANGY NSDAQ)."