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Trading Lesson: Santa Claus Rally: Myth, Magic or Money? Last of 3

12/14/2018 6:00 am EST

Focus: STOCKS

Jake Bernstein

Publisher, The Jake Bernstein Online Weekly Capital Markets Report and Analysis

In the first and second parts of this series I showed you the ideal seasonal tendency chart of S&P futures weekly for this period of time. Data for that graph included all the available historical files back to the start of futures trading in S&P, says Jake Bernstein.

This chart verified the fact that there is indeed a so-called Santa Claus rally.

Given that the rally is not 100% accurate, we went deeper into the data to improve timing and find exact dates for the rally.

I showed the results of that search in the second installment which clearly illustrated a tendency to rally from late November until early December. That information was given to before the fact and prior to the rally that has taken place since then.

Given that this first seasonal pattern has achieved its objectives and exceeded them, the next question becomes: is there anything else?

After all, it was an early Christmas present.

In order to answer this question we will go to the computer and ask for historical results beginning five days prior to Christmas and ending five days after Christmas.

The results of this search are shown below. Remember that we are simply conducting a historical search. We are not attempting to predict the future.

If you believe as I do that history in the markets repeats, then examine the data below and reach your own conclusion.  (Search data provided by www.seasonaltrader.com)

chart

Happy holidays!

Jake Bernstein

www.jakebernstein.com

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