Major Market Ranges For Week of Oct. 20, Breakouts Forthcoming

10/18/2019 11:35 am EST

Focus: MARKETS

Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor, www.trevorsmithfnp.com

Here are next week’s predicted major market ranges from Trevor Smith.

Markets are setting up for various breakouts. Some breakouts are pivots-based setups, while others are solely range-based. Other breakouts yet, such as gold’s developing blowouts, are on multiple higher time frames with no guarantees of happening next week. Gold is a time-based breakout. Crude Oil has three weeks’ worth of weekly pivots engulfing each other’s ranges, and its pivot-based breakout is on every imaginable timeframe.

This week, all underlying symbols, as of today exceeded our option spread strike prices in the winning directions. Seven of 10 projected weekly ranges printed as of late Thursday night, with many being reversal zones.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges

E-mini S&P 500

High Range: 3024-3009: Low Range: 2973-2952

Buy 2990/2985 Weekly put spreads; Rationale: projected range midpoint is below current price and above confluence of moving averages/pivots/Bollinger Band midlines.

Japanese Yen

High Range: 9308-9275; Low Range: 9217-9174  

Sell 9275/9250 put spread. Rationale: Volatility, range midpoint is closer to lows than highs

Euro FX

High Range 1.123-1.120 Low Range 1.111-1.108

Buy 1117/1115 put spread. Rationale: Lower weekly pivot zones than current price, volatility, daily chart overbought oscillators

Gold

High Range $1519-$1509; Low Range -$1487-$1480

Sell $1495/1500 weekly put spreads on pullbacks. Rationale: Range midpoint is over current price, narrow-range pivots breakout setup; it is on weekly-chart support levels.

Crude Oil

High Range $5550-$5514; Low Range $5304-$5240 ($5,611 outlier event, multiple frame moving average cluster)

Sell $5400/5350 put spread. Rationale: $5400 is range midpoint next week. If breakout direction is lower, false move higher likely

(Note: This article is published on Fridays and focuses on weekly options expiring the following Friday but may include monthly options or 2-week calendar/diagonal option spreads at times.)

Last Week’s Projected Ranges Versus Actuals As of Thursday 11:45 p.m.

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 3010-3030; Low Range 2965-2945 (outlier event= 3055 Sept. Monthly Camarilla resistance)

Actual: 3008-2953

Buy 2995/3000 Weekly call spreads; Rationale: projected range midpoint is overhead; trade small size, as VIX is on supports and a market bear pullback could give energy for new-high attempts Aggressive traders could reverse position at the whole number (3000) buying put spreads if signs present.

Japanese Yen

High Range 9308-9275; Low Range 9217-9174

Actual:9292-9211

Euro FX

High Range 1.116-1.112; Low Range: 1.106-1.103

Actual: 1118-1103

Buy call spread near 1.1075/1.1 current price call spreads weekly expiration upon throwbacks from overhead moving-average resistance. Rationale: bullish higher time frames

Gold

High Range $1519-$1510; Low Range $1480-$1471

Actual: $1503-$1480

Sell $1490/1495 weekly put spreads on pullbacks. Rationale: Range midpoint is over current price in sideways-action week with some breakout character. I believe option market Delta on $1500 strike is mispriced & over >58% touch prob.

Crude Oil

High Range $5635-$5327; Low Range $5326-$5220

Actual: $5490-$5239

Sell $5250/52 or $5250/53 weeklies or monthly expiration put spreads on any down moves. Rationale: Daily, Weekly chart candlestick patterns, sideways reversal low next week

See More analysis from Trevor here

Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.

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