Major Market Ranges for Next Week from Trevor Smith

11/22/2019 10:29 am EST

Focus: FOREX

Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor, www.trevorsmithfnp.com

Major market ranges for next week from Trevor Smith.

Endless fractal arrays of trending math, ancient math polygon shapes (mostly triangles), and trending pivots continue to take over my charts. Generally, I would state this type of wide-range market math is not my range reversal forte/skillset, except nine of 10 proposed option trades from last Friday had successful breaks past chosen strikes in winning directions! Following my own advice to take a rest period after a winning-streak series so as to avoid overconfidence and trading judgement mistakes, I am limiting next week’s proposed trades to actual chart trade signals, rather than the usual hypothetical range midpoint trades, which readers can calculate themselves from my projected ranges if needed.

Because European markets open before U.S. markets, my euro short trade may conclude before article publishing. However, if the trade still makes sense midmorning Friday, 1.105 is the target on a short call spread from 1.1075/1.110 expiring next Friday. 1.111 and 1.105 are untouched pivot magnet prices, in case traders are staying in the winning long monthly euro trade or want to enter long or short trading weekly options to the 1.105 weekly pivot from this week’s daily chart inverted hammer.

As of Thursday evening Nov. 21, 2019, the crude oil weekly chart shows three weeks of hammer-tail candles forming a megaphone pattern, indicating the massive oil range break is higher to $68 or $72 per barrel. Looking at understudies, I could also argue the smackdown bear side from the spread between fast-slow CCI and Fisher lines creates a discrepancy strong enough to oppose the bullish megaphone!

In this closing week, seven of 10 projected weekly ranges printed as of late Thursday. The 9247 price in the Japanese yen was very close to its weekly high of 9260, as was the 3090 S&P 500 futures low (3085 projection).

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges

E-mini S&P 500

High Range:  3136-3119; Low Range 3092-3077 (possible outlier event= 3058, if not Friday)

Japanese Yen

High Range 9254-9235; Low Range 9190-9180  

Euro FX

High Range 1.112-1.109; Low Range 1.105-1.103

Gold

High Range $1482-$1475; Low Range $1459-$1450

Crude Oil

High Range $6112-$5991; Low Range $5655-$5574

(Note: This article is published mid-day on Fridays and focuses on weekly options expiring the following Friday but may include monthly options or 2-week calendar/diagonal option spreads at times. I consider my week’s range accuracy from Fri. p.m. publishing until next Fri. a.m. as Trevor’s week for purposes of being aligned with potential weekly option trades placed Fri-Wed.)

Last Week’s Projected Ranges vs, Actuals as of Thursday 10:00 p.m. CST

E-mini S&P 500

High Range:  3130-3119; Low Range 3085-3075

Actual: 3132-3090

Buy 3110/3105, Weekly put spreads; Rationale: Bearish/negatively divergent understudies still, price at extreme values over a multitude of high reversal pivots; weekly pivot/range midpoints 3100 below

Japanese Yen

High Range 9283-9260; Low Range 9198-9165  

Actual: 9247-9181

Sell 9200/9225 weeklies call spread; buy 9175/9200 call spread monthly on lows. Rationale: bullish 9320 overhead 6-week target from presumed FXY 50-week/200-week moving average crossover; price throwback gives energy for higher pricing. 9214 weekly pivot below

Euro FX

High Range 1.109-1.106; Low Range 1.102-1.100

Actual: 1.11-1.106

Sell 1.105/1.1075 call spread weeklies; reverse position sell 1102/11075 put spread monthly on lows Rationale: Daily chart hammer candlestick on monthly camarilla pivot support with 1.113 as the 20-week moving average overhead pulls price up; retest throwback to weekly pivot leads into monthly options trade

Gold

High Range $1488-$1479; Low Range $1461-$1453

Actual: $1479-$1456

Sell $1465/1470 weekly call spread, then sell $1465/60 put spread weekly. Rationale: weekly pivot below $1463; bullish daily-3Day charts but bearish monthly chart; consider gold avoidance or trade lightly bullish into Dec., in case monthly chart collapses. $1470 is range midpoint above;

Crude Oil

High Range $5857-$5782; Low Range $5637-$5570

Actual: $5867-$5485

Sell $57/5750 call spread on upticks and sell $5650/$57 put spread weekly Friday. Rationale: Bearish three -day charts but long narrow range setup means oil could be $73 or $37 on any morning with halted trading. Use monthly strangles if believing big breakout is within weeks away. Trending monthly/weekly pivots means join the breakout. Will I be driving the Prius or the Lincoln Livery Town Car more into holidays?

See More analysis from Trevor here

Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.

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