Cameco: How to Play Uranium

09/14/2015 7:00 am EST


Jason Simpkins

, Outsiders Club

I don't know if you've noticed, but things are really turning around for uranium, asserts Jason Simpkins, editor of The Outsider Club.

So maligned in the aftermath of Japan's Fukushima disaster, the fuel has finally found it’s footing again.

Since bottoming in June 2014, uranium has bounced back 27%. It's no secret why: uranium supplies have been choked off just as demand is set to soar.

Simply put, countries like Russia, China, and India need nuclear power. They need to answer their growing demand for energy and they need to do it in a way that doesn't add to their pollution problems.

Nuclear power is that answer. China has 28 nuclear reactors under construction and another 100 planned. Meanwhile, India currently has 21 active reactors and it's building another six.

Yet, years of low uranium prices have brought production cuts and mine closures. The crash in uranium prices wiped 96% of suppliers from the market.

Now, 80% of the world's primary uranium supply comes from just ten mines. And future global supply is dependent on just five newly proposed projects.

That hasn't been a problem up until this point, because the world had adequate reserves to cover for declining production.

But 2016 marks a huge inflection point for the industry. This will be the first year that demand will actually exceed supplies.

Given this widening gap between supply and demand, you can expect uranium prices to more than double from their current levels.

How can you profit? Cameco Corp. (CCJ)—the world’s second-largest producer of uranium—has lost two-thirds of its value over the past five years.

Now, it's poised to recoup some of that loss, and by that, I mean double. Cameco should really be worth $30, easily.

Remember, this is a stock that traded at $42 per share in February 2011, when uranium was $72 per pound (and $52 per share at the height of the 2007 uranium bull).

I'm only calling for a return to $30, as uranium prices bounce back to previously seen, fair-market levels.

In April, Cameco secured a deal to supply 7.1 million pounds of uranium concentrate to India over the next five years.

Better still, the company recently raised its full-year revenue forecast from a 5% increase to a 10% increase. This, after revenue rose 12.5% in the second quarter to $565 million.

That's really good news considering uranium prices haven't even fully rebounded yet. As the price of uranium continues to rise, from the mid-30s to the $40- and $50-range, Cameco will grow increasingly profitable and investors will return in droves.

I like Cameco because I firmly believe that uranium has bottomed. A turnaround play like this is as close as you come to a slam-dunk in this business.

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