Nucor: Solid Outlook in Steel

08/30/2016 7:00 am EST

Focus: STOCKS

Jimmy Mengel

Editor, Outsider Club

Our latest featured recommendation is the single-largest steel producer in the United States; it is also the largest “mini-mill” steelmaker and the largest recycler of any material in all of North America, explains Jimmy Mengel, editor of The Crow's Nest.

Nucor (NUE) has been on a tear this year; it is up 34% since the beginning of the year. This has been good news since Nucor has been rather beat up over the past year or two due to the huge oversupply of steel from China.

Thankfully for American steel companies, a recent international trade organization ruled that China has indeed been dumping steel in the US at less than cost.

That ruling means that China’s steel imports to the US will now be hit with larger tariffs — strengthening Nucor’s business.

Nucor has a couple other new developments that should help out its share price over the next year.

Energy infrastructure giant Kinder Morgan (KMI) just signed a 10-year agreement with Nucor to provide services for five Nucor facilities. The agreement is valued at about $900 million for the contract period.

The five Nucor plans produce approximately 13.4 million tons of steel products annually, and Kinder Morgan’s terminals division plans to handle about 14.8 million tons a year of scrap steel, direct-reduced iron, pig iron, and other feedstocks.

The company also announced that it would be partnering with Japanese steel company JFE Holdings (JFEEF) to build a $270 million automotive steel plant in Mexico.

To be named Nucor-JFE-Steel Mexico, the project is set to begin production in 2019. These both look like solid moves for Nucor.

Meanwhile, I love Nucor because of the cyclical nature of steel. I buy more when the stock cycles lower and cool the buying at the top of the trend. This allows me to dollar-cost average the position nicely over a long period of time.

Looking at a long-term chart, there are plenty of opportunities to buy Nucor on big dips. As long as you treat it as a long-term holding, you can optimize your buying. It is up 300% over the last 20 years.

Speaking of long periods of time, the company has raised its dividend each and every year for the past 41 years, making it a solid dividend aristocrat. We’re buying Nucor for the long-term under $48.

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By Jimmy Mengel, Editor of The Crow's Nest

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