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Profit from the Downside
11/17/2008 11:46 am EST
Michael Shulman, editor of ChangeWave Shorts, sees opportunity as the market continues to slide.
The market has been moving. We’ve recently seen the steepest two-day declines since 1987, and, as a result, it’s time to re-adjust Buy Under prices. While the possibility of a bounce is always with us, the latest unemployment number and retail numbers, means GDP in Q3 really went down about 2%-3%—and we still have a lot more carnage to go. So the market, which ultimately must be driven by fundamentals, is headed down—hard. Let's get ready to profit:
NEW BUY UNDERS: CONSUMER SPENDING
• Nordstrom Jan 15 Puts (JWNMC): Raise Buy Under to $3.10. Yesterday's news was much worse than other analysts expected, but our most recent ChangeWave Alliance survey data that came in yesterday said the disaster in retail sales is far from over.
• Cheesecake Factory April 10 Puts (CFQPB): Raise Buy Under to $3. Restaurant spending is declining faster than campaign expenditures. There's more bad news from CAKE on the horizon.
NEW BUY UNDERS: FINANCIALS
• Citigroup Jan 12.50 Puts (CMZ): Raise Buy Under to $2.80. The stock is worth $6 thanks to Uncle Sam, and maybe not worth a penny without Uncle Sam. This is a good play right now.
• Capital One Financial March 22.50 Puts (COFOX): Raise Buy Under to $3.90. The credit card crisis is in its early stages, though Wall Street thinks we're in the late stages. Bully for us.
NEW BUY UNDERS: HOMEBUILDERS
• Pulte Homes Jan 7.50 Puts (PHMMS): Lower Buy Under to $1.10. A recent pop based on overly optimistic comments and short-covering hit this position hard. It's time to get in.
• Hovnanian May 2.50 Puts (HOVQZ): Raise Buy Under to $1.05. Hovnanian has a very weak balance sheet in a terrible market.
NEW BUY UNDERS: TECH AND BIOTECH
• Pfizer Jan (2010) 12.50 Puts (WPEMV): Raise Buy Under to $2. The slide begins anew. This is a great play right here.
• Lexmark April 25 Puts (LXKPE): Raise Buy Under to $2.95. Santa is not delivering printers this year—actually, he's not delivering anything.
As always, any time I update Buy Under prices, you can take it as a sign of my positive outlook for the position. Put your Fresh Money to work today, but be sure to use limit orders to avoid over-paying.
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