My top electric vehicle (EV) stock for 2022 is "oldie, but goodie" Ford Motor (F), suggests Kirk Spano, editor of Fundamental Trends Investment Letter and a Registered Investment Advisor with Bluemound Asset Management, LLC.
We first invested in Ford stock at single digit prices, after I attended the 2020 Consumer Electronics Show, where I saw the Mustang Mach E and the company’s robots. Though Ford is not just a car company anymore.
I believe that Ford will become a larger producer of EVs than Tesla (TSLA). Why? They have a built-in fan base. Millions of loyal customers will buy the Mach E over a Model Y, and an F-150 Lightning over a cybertruck. I’m waiting for an electric Ford Explorer which will debut in 2 or 3 years.
Meanwhile, there’s a lot more to Ford. Its "4th Industrial Revolution" technology is on the front edge of making Ford a high-end manufacturing powerhouse. Evidence that they were able to pivot to making ventilators in 3 weeks during the Covid pandemic. This exciting aspect of Ford is completely unrecognized by investors and most analysts.
The company is also sitting on a huge portfolio of valuable real estate. Again, investors and analysts are not valuing this part of the company properly. Frankly, they are not valuing it at all in the share price.
With supply chains for various high-end manufacturing moving back to America, Ford’s real estate is becoming more valuable in general. But there is more to the story. ICE vehicles take less manufacturing space. So, Ford’s real estate can be transformed into other uses. Certainly, some will be sold to generate cash.
Another opportunity for Ford’s real estate is to use their Industrial Revolution tech for joint ventures and new manufacturing opportunities. Think of this as maximizing the return on floor space of a store. I don’t know what deals are coming, but their tech too valuable for there not to be more deals soon.
Ford has been improving their balance sheet for several years, including finding more favorable debt conditions, including pushing two-thirds of maturities out long-term. A benefit is they have been able to spend on massive capex for the EV transition without raising debt the past four years.
The company now sits on a cash pile of $46 billion which equates to $11 per share. That was enough to reinstate their dividend for 2022 and extinguish more high yielding debt. I expect Ford to start buying back significant amounts of shares by mid-decade. Frankly, Ford is becoming a shareholder yield dream.
Market conditions, Covid and execution risks can certainly send shares down short-term. I would view any dip in Ford shares as an opportunity to increase holdings or scale in if you don’t own any.
Millennials have taken an interest in the stock, which is very important for future share price. I have a 3- to 5-year price target on Ford of $100 based on a future market cap of around $400 billion and 3.9 billion shares outstanding.
