Since the peak for bullion in August 2011, the metal has been under intense pressure and many gold s...
Gold and Gold Stocks Finally Bottoming?
01/01/2014 7:00 am EST
David Banister of MarketTrendForecast.com takes a look at the bullish percent index chart relative to gold’s cycle and gold stocks.
Essentially, what this chart tells you is what percentage of gold sector stocks are at or above a moving average, which normally would be 50 days. When 70% or more are above a 50-day moving average, sectors can be peaking out. If you look at our chart at the bottom, we have labeled various incidents with A, B, C, and D.
A. The precious metal as we all know peaked in the fall of 2011 at $1923 per ounce, and the bullish percent index was at 80%! Usually at 30% or so, they are bottoming out in most cases.
B. We saw a rare case in the summer of 2013 where the bullish percent index for gold stocks was at 0%, yes that is not a miss-print.
C. Gold bottomed at 1181 in late June 2013, and then rallied up to 1434 and we saw gold stocks rally 40-80% in individual cases and the bullish percent index rallied up to 55%.
D. If we fast forward to December 2013, we have gold pulling back in the final 5th wave down from the bull cycle highs in August 2011 at $1923. The bullish percent index is back to 10% and heading towards 0 or close once again. At the same time, the gold miners index ETF (GDX) is at five-year lows and even lower than June-July 2013 lows.
These types of indicators are coming to a pivot point where gold is testing the summer 1181 lows and may go a bit lower to the 1090 ranges. At the same time, we see bottoming 5th wave patterns combining with public sentiment, bullish percent indexes, and five-year lows in gold stocks. This is how bottom in bear cycles form and you are witnessing the makings of a huge bottom between now and early February 2014 if we are right.
The time to buy gold and gold stocks is now during the next four-five weeks just as we were recommending stocks in late February 2009 with public articles that nobody paid attention to. This is the time to start accumulating quality gold miner and also the precious metals themselves as the bear cycle winds down and the spring comes back to gold and silver in 2014.
By David Banister of MarketTrendForecast.com
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