View from Toronto: Strategic Summary for Global Markets This Week

07/31/2017 2:51 am EST

Focus: STRATEGIES

Ziad Jasani

Managing Director and Partner, Independent Investor Institute

We open dominated by manufacturing data which Bulls try (unsuccessfully) to keep the July 7 bounce alive. The back half of week we focus U.S. jobs & UK monetary policy. Both are likely to depict issues with inflation, suggests Ziad Jasani, in his weekly video today.


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  1. Global Equity Markets: July 7 bounce in peril Global indices point downwards this week.
  2. Global Bond Markets relatively expensive, but weaker wage/price inflation data likely keep downward pressure on yields allowing Bonds:

video

SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF iShares Barclays 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) to remain buoyant.

  • However, high-yield SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) and Corporate iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate ETF (LQD) are challenged.
  • Global Commodity Markets bounce running hot, more likely to swing-high on a rising U.S. dollar/euro (USD) back-half of week.
  • Theme for the week: Front half of week dominated by manufacturing data which Bulls try (unsuccessfully) to use to keep the July 7 bounce alive.
  • Back half of week focus US jobs & UK monetary policy, of which both are likely to depict issues with inflation.
  • We are expecting S&P 500 (SPY) to move down and test its 50-Day Average (2,435), where if jobs report delivers, we bounce, otherwise we breakdown headed towards 2,400.
  • The Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) has up-side risk until the Commodity-bounce turns. (Inventories this week are likely to show builds).
  • Broad-Decisions: Hold for mid-to-longer-term equity positions but get your stop-losses in, short-term look-short (Inverse ETFs) to open week, and then again to end week.

View the Independent Investor Institute trading ideas and strategies video here

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