View from Toronto: Trade Ideas for US, Canadian Markets
Here are a dozen or so trade ideas for the U.S. and Canadian markets and a strategic market outlook summary for the week of August 7-11, in a weekly video report by Ziad Jasani.
• Implications U.S.: S&P 500 projects downwards to 2,440-35 with better odds of breaking below to end the week and starting a move towards 2,400.
• Growth-based spaces under-perform (Technology, Discretionaries, Industrials), Financials have some “staying” power on Yields popping from August 4 Jobs data. However, Materials/Mining and Energy are likely to face pressure from a rising USD and weaken to the end of the week.
• Defensives (including Bonds, Gold) unfavorable the front end of week on rising USD and yields but may out-perform on August 11 CPI (Inflation) data.
• Trade-able short-term front half of week ↑ (US):
• Implications Canada: TSX is tied to Oil which has “overheated.” All short-term technical support a pull-back in Oil and the Commodity-Complex in general. While Oil remains above $48.50 the TSX is likely to remain above support of 15,175-110, but watch out below if Oil breaks, if Oil holds above $49.50 to close August 4, 2017 another test of its 200-Day Average is possible (15,335) but unlikely successfully break above.
• Financials hold-up the front of the week with better chance to weaken into end of week.
• Energy attempts to continue bounce to start week, but fails into end of week. Materials struggle for most of the week, especially precious metals. Defensives, struggle with higher yields and are better to be faded.
• Trade-able short-term the front half week ↑ (CDN):
iShares S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index (XIC-T)
iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF (XIU-T)
iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF (XEG-T)
iShares S&P/TSX Capped Financials Index ETF (XFN-T)
BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Banks Index ETF (ZEB-T)
My suggested trade ideas and scenarios follow on this chart and in the accompanying video.