How Hot Can Natural Gas Get?

08/14/2017 3:01 am EST

Focus: COMMODITIES

Michael Paulenoff

Consultant and Publisher, MPTrader.com

Trade idea: UGAZ has already exceeded our initial target of 12.40, and is up over 15% since we added it, with our next target at 13.25, writes Mike Paulenoff, veteran technical strategist,  financial author, and host of MPTrader.com.


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The lower-than-expected build in natural gas inventories (28 bcf vs. expected 37 bcf) in the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released Thursday, August 10 goosed the price of the nat gas futures.

Our technical work anticipated the move, and we still see the continued upside for the futures as well as for the VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN (UGAZ).

The positive juxtaposition of our nearer-term momentum gauges with the sideways price action on the nat gas futures chart (July contract) was one of the indicators we used, which you can see on the chart from August 8.

We actually added a long trade in UGAZ back on August 2, when the nat gas futures clawed their way above important resistance at 2.835, which corresponded to a price of 11.07 in the UGAZ.

As we now know, natural gas rocketed last week above the July 31 unfilled downgap area at 2.89-2.92, towards a challenge of the next significant resistance zone at 2.97-3.00.

If hurdled and sustained, this will trigger the potential for a run at multi-month resistance at 3.10-3.11.

The UGAZ has already exceeded our initial target of 12.40, and is up over 15% since we added it, with our next target at 13.25.

See our charts on nat gas futures both on Aug 8 and then on Aug 10 after the move.

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