View from London: Eyes on Yen amid Global Conflict

08/28/2017 2:53 am EST


Robert Savage

Partner & CEO, CCTrack Solutions

Watching the JPY remains the favorite currency barometer. And despite the hype for Yellen being dovish – the flashing light is yellow with a shade of red for risk, writes Bob Savage, CEO of Track Research in his Monday commentary from London.

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In the history of post-WWII U.S. politics, the role of Blue Dog Democrats was important – with the coalition starting in 1995 during the 104th Congress driving consensus policies for U.S. budgets. These were conservative voting Democrats from the South and they had a key role in building bi-partisan agreements until 2010 when they became almost extinct.

Blue Dogs may be something to think about today with the focus on the start of Congressional debate about tax reform and debt ceilings as the vacations for everyone are about to end. Blue Dogs also have a sad warning signal about the fate of the world – not just politically – but also as a signal of lax environmental regulation particularly in India but perhaps after the horrors in Texas from Hurricane Harvey – in the U.S. too.

Overnight, with UK holiday and with many waiting for the more important month-end flows and data – little price action mattered.

However, there was a spate of important news stories regarding geopolitics. Here is my partial list:

–China and India disengage at Doklam.
–Nations agree before Modi and Xi meet Sunday at BRICS summit.
–North Korea fires 3 short-range ballistic missiles – but Tillerson pushes for peaceful resolution despite provocation.
–South Korea reports that North Korea is ready for another nuclear test.
–Abe Cabinet support rises in polls – suggests reshuffle helped but women and independents still key.
–French Macron popularity slumps again – with dissatisfaction rising to 57% from 43% in July.

All of this puts uncertainty back in play and the euro (EUR/USD), which was bid on Trump tweets and Draghi non-comments Sunday flips to unchanged holding near 27-month highs.

Japanese yen (JPY/USD) and bonds are back in play for safety and with a focus on the data games ahead mixed with US supply and data.

For trading in a world of thin volume, watching the JPY remains the favorite barometer and despite the hype for Yellen being dovish – the flashing light is yellow with a tinge of red for risk.

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